Genomic risk model to implement precision prostate cancer screening in clinical care: the ProGRESS study
: Vassy, Jason L.; Dornisch, Anna M.; Karunamuni, Roshan; Gatzen, Michael; Kachulis, Christopher J.; Lennon, Niall J.; Brunette, Charles A.; Danowski, Morgan E.; Hauger, Richard L.; Garraway, Isla P.; Kibel, Adam S.; Lee, Kyung M.; Lynch, Julie A.; Maxwell, Kara N.; Ratner, Dmitry; Rose, Brent S.; Teerlink, Craig C.; Xu, George J.; Hofherr, Sean E.; Lafferty, Katherine A.; Larkin, Katie; Malolepsza, Edyta; Patterson, Candace J.; Toledo, Diana M.; Donovan, Jenny L.; Hamdy, Freddie C.; Martin, Richard M.; Neal, David E.; Turner, Emma L.; Andreassen, Ole A.; Dale, Anders M.; Mills, Ian G.; Abraham, Aswin; Batra, Jyotsna; Clements, Judith; Cussenot, Olivier; Cybulski, Cezary; Eeles, Rosalind A.; Fowke, Jay H.; Grindedal, Eli Marie; Grönberg, Henrik; Hamilton, Robert J.; Lim, Jasmine; Lu, Yong-Jie; MacInnis, Robert J.; Maier, Christiane; Mucci, Lorelei A.; Multigner, Luc; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Nielsen, Sune F.; Parent, Marie-Élise; Park, Jong Y.; Petrovics, Gyorgy; Plym, Anna; Razack, Azad; Rosenstein, Barry S.; Schleutker, Johanna; Dalsgaard Sørensen, Karina; Townsend, Paul A.; Travis, Ruth C.; Vega, Ana; West, Catharine M. L.; Wiklund, Fredrik; Zheng, Wei; Profile Steering Committee; IMPACT Study Steering Committee and Collaborators; PRACTICAL Consortium; VA Million Veteran Program; Seibert, Tyler M.
Publisher: Springer Nature
: 2026
Nature Cancer
: 2662-1347
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43018-025-01103-0
: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43018-025-01103-0
Precision healthcare aims to tailor disease prevention and early detection to individual risk. Prostate cancer screening may benefit from genomics-informed approaches. We developed and validated the P-CARE model, a prostate cancer risk prediction tool combining a polygenic score, family history and genetic ancestry, using data from over 585,000 male participants in the Million Veteran Program. The model was externally validated in diverse cohorts and implemented via a blended genome–exome assay for clinical use. Here we show that the P-CARE model identifies clinically meaningful gradients of prostate cancer risk among men, with higher scores associated with increased risk of any, metastatic and fatal prostate cancer. The model is now being used in a clinical trial of precision prostate cancer screening. This work demonstrates the potential for genomics-enabled health systems to improve prostate cancer screening and prevention in men.
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This research was funded by the US Department of Veterans Affairs Office of Research and Development (I01 CX002635 to J.L.V. and I01 CX001727 to R.L.H.), which played no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. It was supported using resources and facilities of the Department of VA Informatics and Computing Infrastructure (VINCI) ORD 24-VINCI-01, including writing support from K. Pridgen, under the research priority to Put VA Data to Work for Veterans (VA ORD 24-D4V). Funding for salaries includes Department of VA (VISN22 Veterans Center of Excellence for Stress and Mental Health to R.L.H.), VA Office of Research and Development (1I01CX002709 and 1I01CX002622 to K.N.M.), National Institutes of Health (NIH) (R01AG050595 to R.L.H. and K08CA215312 to K.N.M.), the Department of Defense (DOD/CDMRP PC220521 to T.M.S.), the Prostate Cancer Foundation (23CHAL12 to T.M.S., 20YOUN02 to K.N.M., 22CHAL02 to I.P.G., B.S.R. and K.N.M.), the Burroughs Wellcome Foundation (no. 1017184 to K.N.M.), Basser Center for BRCA (K.N.M.).
CAP: The CAP trial was funded by grants C11043/A4286, C18281/A8145, C18281/A11326, C18281/A15064 and C18281/A24432 from Cancer Research UK. The UK Department of Health, National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) provided partial funding.
ProtecT: The ProtecT trial was funded by project grants 96/20/06 and 96/20/99 from the UK National Institute for Health Research, Health Technology Assessment Programme. R.M.M. is an NIHR Senior Investigator (NIHR202411). R.M.M. is supported by a Cancer Research UK 25 (C18281/A29019) programme grant (the Integrative Cancer Epidemiology Programme). R.M.M. is also supported by the NIHR Bristol Biomedical Research Centre which is funded by the NIHR (BRC-1215-20011) and is a partnership between University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust and the University of Bristol. A.V. is supported by Spanish Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) funding, an initiative of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Innovation partially supported by European Regional Development FEDER Funds (PI22/00589, INT24/00023, DTS24/00083 and PI25/00744); and by the AECC (PRYES211091VEGA). A.S.K. is supported by NIH, grant/award numbers U01 - U01CA268810.
CRUK and PRACTICAL Consortium: This work was supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR), European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme grant agreement no. 223175 (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175), Cancer Research UK grants (C5047/A7357, C1287/A10118, C1287/A16563, C5047/A3354, C5047/A10692 and C16913/A6135) and The NIH Cancer Post-Cancer GWAS initiative grant: no. 1 U19 CA 148537-01 (the GAME-ON initiative). We also thank the following for funding support: The Institute of Cancer Research and The Everyman Campaign, The Prostate Cancer Research Foundation, Prostate Research Campaign UK (now PCUK), The Orchid Cancer Appeal, Rosetrees Trust, The National Cancer Research Network UK and The National Cancer Research Institute (NCRI) UK. We are grateful for support of NIHR funding to the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at The Institute of Cancer Research, The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, and Manchester NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. The Prostate Cancer Program of Cancer Council Victoria also acknowledge grant support from The National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia (126402, 209057, 251533, 396414, 450104, 504700, 504702, 504715, 623204, 940394 and 614296), VicHealth, Cancer Council Victoria, The Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia, The Whitten Foundation, PricewaterhouseCoopers and Tattersall’s. E.A.O., D.M.K. and E.M.K. acknowledge the Intramural Program of the National Human Genome Research Institute for their support. Genotyping of the OncoArray was funded by the US NIH (U19 CA 148537 for ELucidating Loci Involved in Prostate cancer SuscEptibility (ELLIPSE) project and X01HG007492 to the Center for Inherited Disease Research under contract number HHSN268201200008I). Additional analytic support was provided by NIH NCI U01 CA188392 (PI: Schumacher). Research reported in this publication also received support from the National Cancer Institute of the NIH under award numbers U10 CA37429 (C.D. Blanke) and UM1 CA182883 (C.M. Tangen/I.M. Thompson).
Funding for the iCOGS infrastructure came from: the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement no. 223175 (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175) (COGS), Cancer Research UK (C1287/A10118, C1287/A 10710, C12292/A11174, C1281/A12014, C5047/A8384, C5047/A15007, C5047/A10692 and C8197/A16565), the NIH (CA128978) and Post-Cancer GWAS initiative (1U19 CA 148537, 1U19 CA148065 and 1U19 CA148112 - the GAME-ON initiative), the Department of Defence (W81XWH-10-1-0341), the CIHR for the CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer, Komen Foundation for the Cure, the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, and the Ovarian Cancer Research Fund. PROtEuS received funding from the Canadian Cancer Society, the Cancer Research Society, the Fonds de Recherche du Québec–Santé, the Ministère du Développement Économique, de l’Innovation et de l’Exportation du Québec and the Canada Research Chairs Program
BPC3: The BPC3 was supported by the US NIH, National Cancer Institute (cooperative agreements U01-CA98233 to D.J.H., U01-CA98710 to S.M.G., U01-CA98216 to E.R. and U01-CA98758 to B.E.H., and Intramural Research Program of NIH/National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics).
CAPS: The CAPS GWAS study was supported by the Cancer Risk Prediction Center (CRisP; www.crispcenter.org), a Linneus Centre (Contract ID 70867902) financed by the Swedish Research Council, (grant no K2010-70X-20430-04-3), the Swedish Cancer Foundation (grant no 09-0677), the Hedlund Foundation, the Soederberg Foundation, the Enqvist Foundation, ALF funds from the Stockholm County Council. Stiftelsen Johanna Hagstrand och Sigfrid Linner’s Minne, Karlsson’s Fund for urological and surgical research.
PEGASUS: PEGASUS was supported by the Intramural Research Program, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, NIH.