A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal

A digital twin for real-time biodiversity forecasting with citizen science data




AuthorsOvaskainen, O.; Winter, S.; Tikhonov, G.; Lauha, P.; Lehtiö, A.; Nokelainen, O.; Abrego, N.; Aroluoma, A.; Harrison, J. P.; Heikkinen, M.; Kallio, A.; Koliseva, A.; Lehikoinen, A.,;Roslin, T.; Somervuo, P.; Souza, A. T.; Tahir, J.; Talaskivi, J.; Turunen, A.; Vancraeyenest, A.; Zuquim, G.; Autto, H.; Hänninen, J.; Inkinen, J.; Outa Kalttopää, O.; Koskinen, J.; Kotakorpi, M.; Kuntze, K.; Loehr, J.; Mutanen, M.; Oranen, M.; Paavola, R.; Renkonen, R.; Schiestl-Aalto, P.; Sipilä, M.; Sujala, M.; Sundell, J.; Tepsa, S.,; Tuominen, E-P.; Uusitalo, J.; Vallinmäki, M.; Vatka, E.; Veikkolainen, S.; Watts, P.;. &. Dunson, D.;

Publication year2026

Journal: Nature Ecology and Evolution

Volume10

First page 481

Last page495

eISSN2397-334X

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-025-02966-3

Publication's open availability at the time of reportingOpen Access

Publication channel's open availability Partially Open Access publication channel

Web address https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-025-02966-3

Self-archived copy’s web addresshttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/508771185

Self-archived copy's licenceCC BY

Self-archived copy's versionPublisher`s PDF


Abstract

Citizen science provides large amounts of biodiversity data. Key challenges in unlocking its full potential include engaging citizens with limited species identification skills and accelerating the transition from data collection to research and monitoring outputs. Here we use a large dataset from Finland to show how even citizens who cannot identify birds themselves can contribute to real-time predictions of avian distributions. This is achieved through a digital twin that combines smartphone-based citizen science with long-term knowledge in a continuously updating model. The app submits raw audio to a backend that classifies birds with machine learning, reducing variation in data quality and enabling validation and reclassification by continuously improving classifiers. We counteracted spatiotemporal sampling biases by interval recordings and permanent point count networks. Over 2 years, the app generated 15 million bird detections. Independent test data show that the digital-twin-informed models are more accurate at predicting bird spatiotemporal distributions. Because our approach is highly scalable and has the potential to generate biomonitoring data even in understudied areas, it could accelerate the flow of reliable biodiversity information and increase inclusivity in citizen science projects.


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Funding information in the publication
Open Access funding provided by University of Jyväskylä (JYU).


Last updated on 10/03/2026 08:19:27 AM