A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
A digital twin for real-time biodiversity forecasting with citizen science data
Authors: Ovaskainen, O.; Winter, S.; Tikhonov, G.; Lauha, P.; Lehtiö, A.; Nokelainen, O.; Abrego, N.; Aroluoma, A.; Harrison, J. P.; Heikkinen, M.; Kallio, A.; Koliseva, A.; Lehikoinen, A.,;Roslin, T.; Somervuo, P.; Souza, A. T.; Tahir, J.; Talaskivi, J.; Turunen, A.; Vancraeyenest, A.; Zuquim, G.; Autto, H.; Hänninen, J.; Inkinen, J.; Outa Kalttopää, O.; Koskinen, J.; Kotakorpi, M.; Kuntze, K.; Loehr, J.; Mutanen, M.; Oranen, M.; Paavola, R.; Renkonen, R.; Schiestl-Aalto, P.; Sipilä, M.; Sujala, M.; Sundell, J.; Tepsa, S.,; Tuominen, E-P.; Uusitalo, J.; Vallinmäki, M.; Vatka, E.; Veikkolainen, S.; Watts, P.;. &. Dunson, D.;
Publication year: 2026
Journal: Nature Ecology and Evolution
Volume: 10
First page : 481
Last page: 495
eISSN: 2397-334X
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-025-02966-3
Publication's open availability at the time of reporting: Open Access
Publication channel's open availability : Partially Open Access publication channel
Web address : https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-025-02966-3
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/508771185
Self-archived copy's licence: CC BY
Self-archived copy's version: Publisher`s PDF
Citizen science provides large amounts of biodiversity data. Key challenges in unlocking its full potential include engaging citizens with limited species identification skills and accelerating the transition from data collection to research and monitoring outputs. Here we use a large dataset from Finland to show how even citizens who cannot identify birds themselves can contribute to real-time predictions of avian distributions. This is achieved through a digital twin that combines smartphone-based citizen science with long-term knowledge in a continuously updating model. The app submits raw audio to a backend that classifies birds with machine learning, reducing variation in data quality and enabling validation and reclassification by continuously improving classifiers. We counteracted spatiotemporal sampling biases by interval recordings and permanent point count networks. Over 2 years, the app generated 15 million bird detections. Independent test data show that the digital-twin-informed models are more accurate at predicting bird spatiotemporal distributions. Because our approach is highly scalable and has the potential to generate biomonitoring data even in understudied areas, it could accelerate the flow of reliable biodiversity information and increase inclusivity in citizen science projects.
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Funding information in the publication:
Open Access funding provided by University of Jyväskylä (JYU).