A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally
Authors: Radchuk, Viktoriia; Jones, Carys V.; McLean, Nina; Charmantier, Anne; Teplitsky, Céline; Alisauskas, Ray; Ancona, Sergio; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Arcese, Peter; Arlt, Debora; Aubry, Lise M.; Bailey, Liam; Barbraud, Christophe; Berg, Karl S.; Berteaux, Dominique; Blumstein, Daniel T.; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Brose, Ulrich; Brouwer, Lyanne; Catry, Paulo; Chero, Guillaume; Chiaradia, Andre; Courtiol, Alexandre; Daunt, Francis; Delord, Karine; Dobson, F. Stephen; Drummond, Hugh; Eeva, Tapio; Fauteux, Dominique; Gauthier, Gilles; Genovart, Meritxell; Granadeiro, José P.; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Harris, Michael; Igual, José Manuel; Janzen, Fredric; Keogan, Katharine; Korpimäki, Erkki; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie; Kruuk, Loeske E. B.; Lewis, Sue; Mallory, Mark; Martin, Julien; Massot, Manuel; Matthysen, Erik; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Møller, Anders Pape; Nater, Chloé R.; Newell, Mark; Oppel, Steffen; Oro, Daniel; Ortega, Santiago; Parejo, Deseada; Pärt, Tomas; Payo-Payo, Ana; Pemberton, Josephine; Phillips, Richard A.; Pillay, Neville; Avilés, Jesús M.; Rödel, Heiko G.; Sanz-Aguilar, Ana; Saraux, Claire; Schielzeth, Holger; Schradin, Carsten; Schroeder, Julia; Sheldon, Ben C.; Tavecchia, Giacomo; Tarwater, Corey E.; Veiberg, Vebjørn; Viblanc, Vincent A.; von Holst, Dietrich; Vriend, Stefan J. G.; Wanless, Sarah; Wheelwright, Nathaniel; Wood, Andrew G.; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Clobert, Jean; Beissinger, Steven R.; Visser, Marcel E.; Reed, Thomas E.; van de Pol, Martijn
Publisher: Springer Nature
Publication year: 2026
Journal: Nature Communications
Article number: 479
Volume: 17
eISSN: 2041-1723
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-68172-8
Publication's open availability at the time of reporting: Open Access
Publication channel's open availability : Open Access publication channel
Web address : https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-68172-8
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/508603389
Self-archived copy's licence: CC BY
Self-archived copy's version: Publisher`s PDF
Phenotypic responses to climate affect individual fitness, but the extent to which this translates into effects on population dynamics remains poorly understood. We assemble 213 time series on phenotypes and population sizes of wild vertebrates globally and match them with local climate data. Our meta-analysis shows that morphological traits are mostly climate insensitive. However, phenology is earlier in warmer-than-average years, which contributes positively to population growth in most species. At lower latitudes, temperature has weaker effects on phenology but stronger direct negative effects on population growth, likely because these populations are less capable of tracking climate via plasticity. Variation in the phenology-mediated effect of temperature on population growth cannot be explained by latitude, generation time, migratory mode, or diet. This suggests that simple relationships between species characteristics and population responses to warming may not occur in nature. Instead, we may need to embrace ecological complexity by considering local-scale predictors that capture intra-specific variation.
Downloadable publication This is an electronic reprint of the original article. |  |
Funding information in the publication:
Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.
