A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Impact of growing national solar power capacity on the profitability of residential solar energy production in northern conditions
Authors: Jouttijärvi, Sami; Seppälä, Simeon; Karttunen, Lauri; Ranta, Samuli; Syri, Sanna; Miettunen, Kati
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Publication year: 2026
Journal: Renewable Energy
Article number: 125169
Volume: 260
ISSN: 0960-1481
eISSN: 1879-0682
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2025.125169
Publication's open availability at the time of reporting: Open Access
Publication channel's open availability : Partially Open Access publication channel
Web address : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2025.125169
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/508408113
Self-archived copy's licence: CC BY
Self-archived copy's version: Publisher`s PDF
This study examines the effect of increasing solar photovoltaic (PV) production on electricity market prices and analyzes how this development affects the profitability of residential PV systems. The key novelty is a comprehensive techno-economic analysis of the profitability of differently oriented residential PV systems under different electricity price scenarios. The novel approach combines PV system simulation, a large set of real electricity consumption data, and two electricity price estimation methods: linear regression and aggregated bidding curve modification. Nordic conditions with long summer days and low solar elevation angles enable the efficient use of different PV system designs, such as vertical bifacial PV, offering versatile production profiles. This study identifies how rapidly PV capacity growth cannibalizes the value of the different residential PV systems, what systems are resilient toward cannibalization, and how the national PV deployment strategy affects cannibalization in Finland. The results show that even 500 MW addition to the national PV production capacity in Finland compromises residential PV profitability in the worst-case scenario. Electricity-powered heating solutions make PV more profitable. Overall, maximizing self-consumption is crucial to maintaining the economic profitability of residential PV systems in different electricity price scenarios.
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Funding information in the publication:
This work was funded by the Strategic Research Council (SRC) established within the Research Council of Finland, decision numbers 358542 (Jouttijärvi, Karttunen, Miettunen), 358544 (Seppälä, Syri), and 359141 (Ranta). Karttunen also thanks project ‘HEMS’ funded by University of Turku and City of Salo as well as UTUGS graduate school for funding.