A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Getting too old for this : Population ageing and its economic consequences in Finland
Authors: Kotamäki, Mauri; Lehtimäki, Jonne
Publisher: Elsevier
Publication year: 2025
Journal: Economic analysis and policy
Volume: 88
First page : 1720
Last page: 1750
ISSN: 0313-5926
eISSN: 2204-2296
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2025.10.040
Publication's open availability at the time of reporting: Open Access
Publication channel's open availability : Partially Open Access publication channel
Web address : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2025.10.040
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/505944711
Population ageing creates economic burden through shrinking labour forces and rising age-related expenditures, but existing literature provides only limited causal evidence on the magnitude of effects. This limits policymakers’ ability to prepare for demographic transitions. This paper studies Finland’s uniquely rapid demographic transition, where the old-age dependency ratio nearly doubled during 2010–2019, to identify causal effects of accelerated ageing. The paper uses the Synthetic Control Method and instrumental variable analysis to study the economic consequences of rapid ageing. Accelerated ageing operates through two channels: the contraction of the labour force reduces productive capacity while fiscal pressures increase due to pension and healthcare spending. Results show Finland’s rapid ageing reduced GDP per capita and productivity substantially over the decade, while general government debt increased significantly. These findings quantify the considerable costs of delayed demographic adaptation, demonstrating that the speed of ageing fundamentally determines economic outcomes and public finances in ageing societies worldwide.
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