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Policy Paper on Demands for European Security and Defence Cooperation in Ukraine after Russia's Invasion




TekijätNizhnikau, Ryhor; Karjalainen, Tyyne; Jokela, Juha

KustantajaInvigoratEU

Julkaisuvuosi2025

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17366217

Verkko-osoitehttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17366217


Tiivistelmä

The European security outlook, and European support for Ukraine in particular, has changed dramatically. The EU is Ukraine's key ally, a fact that Ukrainians fully appreciate. The full-scale war has created momentum for previously impossible forms of assistance and cooperation. In the first days of the full-scale war, EU member states considered sending only helmets to Ukraine, whereas in 2025, the military support sent by EU member states to Ukraine is worth 60 billion euros, including advanced and lethal weapon systems, as well as supplies ranging from ammunition to missiles and fighter jets. The most recent plans for security guarantees for a post-ceasefire Ukraine, including air policing, maritime opera¬ tions, and a reassurance force building capacities for Ukraine's land forces, demonstrate the cumulative change in the willingness of European states to respond to Ukraine's security needs. Much of EU policymaking is based on its interactions and joint decision-making with the Ukrainian government, which has reached an unprecedented level since 2022. However, the evolution of the EU-Ukraine security and political partnership, particularly enlargement, and its eventual outcome will also depend on Ukrainian public perception. The aim of this paper is to collect and analyse information regarding Ukrainian public opinion on the EU, security, and defence, as well as how to facilitate the integration process, address the existing limitations, and improve the foundations of the EU-Ukraine relationship. This will be particularly relevant when the electoral process resumes. Evidence of public misunderstanding or frustration could lead to political backlash. Our analysis is based on an opinion poll conducted by the Razumkov Centre, which gathers data on Ukrainians' demands and priorities regarding security and defence cooperation, as well as views on the role of the EU and other partners. The poll's main finding indicates a capability-expectations gap between Western actions and Ukrainian societal needs. The poll was commissioned to identify and analyse Ukrainians' demands and priorities in security and defence cooperation amid the tectonic shifts taking place in European defence and security policies in the region. Although the EU has declared its unwavering support for Ukraine for as long as it is needed, Ukrainian society finds the extent of European support to be unsatisfactory. Specifically, the public opinion poll conducted on behalf of the con¬ sortium finds that Ukrainians demand much more military assistance for their country. Weapon deliveries are prioritised over everything else, including security guarantees, reconstruction, reforms, and EU membership, which are possible only if statehood is preserved - something that is determined on the battlefield. Security guarantees are the most essential form of security support. In this respect, EU membership is viewed as a security guarantee in itself, but Ukrainian society has many reservations about it. Ukrainians no longer consider the offer feasible during the war, which inevitably raises the risk of a potential public backlash due to insufficient support or unfulfilled promises in the longer term. The focus on arms supplies also indicates a turn towards self-reliance and strong support for Ukrainian agency, while trust in greater European engagement in providing Ukraine's security remains low. Based on these findings, this paper recommends improving communication with Ukrainian society, particularly with opinion leaders and young people, as well as coordinating with Ukrainian authorities to avoid a cacophony of voices on core issues of mutual interest. Finding novel ways to better explain what the EU does and why will help minimise the capabilities-expectations gap.


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Funded by the EU


Last updated on 2025-29-10 at 15:27