Extreme events drive rapid and dynamic range fluctuations
: Soifer, Lydia G.; Lockwood, Julie L.; Lembrechts, Jonas J.; Henriques Antão, Laura; Klinges, David H.; Senior, Rebecca A.; Ban, Natalie C.; Evengard, Birgitta; Fadrique, Belen; Falkeis, Sophie; Fredston, Alexa L.; Guralnick, Rob; Lenoir, Jonathan; Neate-Clegg, Montague H.C.; Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano; Pecl, Gretta; Pinsky, Malin L.; Smith, Jennifer E.; Stys, Beth; Tingley, Morgan W.; Scheffers, Brett R.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
: 2025
: Trends in Ecology and Evolution
: Trends in Ecology & Evolution
: 40
: 9
: 862
: 873
: 0169-5347
: 1872-8383
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2025.06.009
: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2025.06.009
Climate change is altering species’ distributions globally. Increasing frequency of extreme weather and climate events (EWCEs) is one of the hallmarks of climate change. Despite species redistribution being widely studied in response to long-term climatic trends, the contribution of EWCEs to range shifts is not well understood. We outline how EWCEs can trigger rapid and unexpected range boundary fluctuations by impacting dispersal, establishment, and survival. Whether these mechanisms cause temporary or persistent range shifts depends on the spatiotemporal context and exposure to EWCEs. Using the increasing availability of data and statistical tools to examine EWCE impacts at fine spatiotemporal resolutions on species redistribution will be critical for informing conservation management of ecologically, economically, and culturally important species.
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The concept for this paper was developed during discussions at the Species on the Move (SOTM) conference workshop funded by the University of Florida IFAS Office of the Dean for Research and held in Bonita Springs Florida, May 2023. The authors acknowledge the following funding sources: L.G.S. was supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship under Grant No. DGE1842473. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. M.L.P. acknowledges NSF CBET-2137701 and DEB-2343787. A.L.F. acknowledges the Zegar Family Foundation. L.H.A. was supported by the Research Council of Finland (340280 and 372215).
