Economic conditions, education, and parity-specific fertility: A sub-national regional study across 15 countries in Europe
: Nisén, Jessica; Klüsener, Sebastian; Dahlberg, Johan; Dommermuth, Lars; Jasilioniene, Aiva; Kreyenfeld, Michaela; Lappegård, Trude; Li, Peng; Martikainen, Pekka; Neels, Karel; Riederer, Bernhard; te Riele, Saskia; Sulak, Harun; Szabó, Laura; Trimarchi, Alessandra; Viciana, Francisco; Myrskylä, Mikko
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd
: 2025
: Population, Space and Place
: e70074
: 31
: 1544-8444
: 1544-8452
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.70074
: https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.70074
: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/498764394
There is a longstanding interest in the link between economic conditions and fertility levels. Most research measuring economic development has focused on national-level patterns and period total fertility levels. We aim to extend existing knowledge by carrying out a sub-national regional analysis of the link between economic conditions and parity-specific cohort fertility, while taking into account heterogeneity by educational level. We study three fertility outcomes by women’s education: the share of women who remain childless, the mean number of children per mother, and the mean number of children per woman. For this analysis we harmonized register, census, and large-scale survey data from 15 European countries, with a focus on women born in the late 1960s. Women’s fertility was measured at the end of their reproductive careers and combined with contextual information, including information on the regional GDP (per capita). In our multiple regression models that controlled for country-level factors, we found that GDP was positively associated with childlessness among women with medium and high levels of education. However, GDP was negatively associated with the number of children per mother among women with low levels of education. These findings show that the relationship between economic conditions and fertility varies depending on the level of education of the women, and it differs between childlessness and continued childbearing. High-income contexts may be less supportive of continued childbearing for women with lower levels of education.
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Nisén was supported by the Academy of Finland, grant nr. 332863 and 320162 (INVEST Research Flagship) and by the Strategic Research Council (SRC) of the Academy of Finland, grant nr. 345130 and 345131 (Family Formation in Flux – Causes, Consequences, and Possible Futures, FLUX). Lappegård and Dommermuth acknowledge support from the Research Council of Norway (project no. 300870 and 287634). Martikainen was supported by the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 101019329), the SRC within the Academy of Finland grants for ACElife (#352543-352572) and LIFECON (# 345219). Trimarchi acknowledges support from the French National Research Agency (Grant Nr. ANR-16-CE41-0007-01, PI: Laurent Toulemon). Myrskylä was supported by the SRC, FLUX consortium, decision numbers 345130 and 345131, and by the National Institute on Aging (R01AG075208) and the European Union (ERC Synergy, BIOSFER, 101071773). The views and opinions expressed are, however, those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Research Council. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. Martikainen and Myrskylä were also supported by grants to the Max Planck – University of Helsinki Center from the Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation (#210046), the Max Planck Society (#5714240218), University of Helsinki (#77204227), and the cities of Helsinki, Vantaa, and Espoo. The authors wish to thank the discussant of the “Cultural and Structural Forces Shaping Family Life” session at PAA 2021 and the members of the EAPS Working Group Register-Based Fertility Research for their helpful comments.
