D4 Julkaistu kehittämis- tai tutkimusraportti taikka -selvitys

The corona pandemic and its impact on the economic development of the Baltic Sea region in 2020

Julkaisun tekijät: Liuhto Kari

Kustantaja: Centrum Balticum Foundation

Paikka: Turku

Julkaisuvuosi: 2020

Journal: BSR policy briefing

Sarjan nimi: BSR Policy Briefing

Numero sarjassa: 3/2020

Julkaisunumero: 3/2020

ISSN: 2342-3153

eISSN: 2342-3153

Verkko-osoite: https://www.centrumbalticum.org/files/4858/BSR_Policy_Briefing_3_2020.pdf


This year, the GDP of the ten coastal countries in the Baltic Sea region
is set to decrease slightly more than the GDP of the world’s advanced
economies on average. The decline in GDP in the Baltic Sea region will
be about 7%. The 10% decline in Germany’s GDP in the second quarter is a
cause for concern, as Germany accounts for almost 15% of the foreign
trade of the other countries in the Baltic Sea region. The fall in oil
prices, on the other hand, will hinder the economies of Norway and
Russia, while cheaper import energy will provide the other coastal
countries in the Baltic Sea region with some relief from the decline in
their gross domestic product. The decline in economic growth is already
reflected in rising unemployment figures. When increased unemployment is
combined with the stress and mental fatigue caused by the pandemic, the
risk of increased social unrest grows. Social pressure in the Baltic
Sea countries is set to increase the most in Sweden, where a more
difficult coronavirus situation than in the rest of the Baltic Sea
region, combined with the country’s high youth unemployment rate (almost
30%) and large share of foreign-born population (almost 20%), could
result in immigrant-related unrest. Concern has also been raised across
the Baltic Sea region regarding the growing number of crimes against
persons with foreign backgrounds by extremist movements. Although there
is enormous uncertainty concerning the pandemic and its socio-economic
impact, it is certain that the world will not return back to what it was
even after the corona pandemic has been overcome.

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Last updated on 2021-20-08 at 07:46