Quantifying the direct and indirect components of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness during the Delta variant era




Suomenrinne-Nordvik, Anna; Leino, Tuija; Shubin, Mikhail; Auranen, Kari; Vänskä, Simopekka

PublisherCAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS

CAMBRIDGE

2025

Epidemiology and Infection

EPIDEMIOLOGY & INFECTION

EPIDEMIOL INFECT

e59

153

10

0950-2688

1469-4409

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268825000354

https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268825000354

https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/491847563

Correction to this article:
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268825100125
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825100125



The efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines against the Delta variant has been observed to be high, both against severe disease and infection. The full population level vaccine effectiveness, however, also contains the indirect effects of vaccination, which require analysis of transmission dynamics to uncover. Finland was close to na & iuml;ve to SARS-CoV-2 infections before the Delta dominant era, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were at an internationally low level. We utilize Finnish register data and a mathematical model for transmission and COVID-19 disease burden to construct a completely unvaccinated control population and estimate the different components of the vaccine effectiveness. The estimated direct effectiveness was 72% against COVID-19 cases and 87-96% against severe disease outcomes, but the estimated indirect effectiveness was even better, 93% against cases and 94-97% against severe disease. The total and overall effectiveness, including both direct and indirect effects of vaccination, were thus excellent. Our results show how well the population was protected by vaccination during the Delta era, especially by the indirect effectiveness, providing protection also to the unvaccinated part of the population. The estimated averted numbers of hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths in Finland during the Delta era under the implemented NPIs were about 100 times the observed numbers.


The Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare has received research funding from several pharmaceutical vaccine manufacturing companies until March 2022.


Last updated on 2025-01-07 at 10:08