Hedelmällisyys on laskenut Suomessa viimeisen vuosikymmenen aikana ennätyksellisen alhaiselle tasolle ja alle Euroopan keskiarvon. Laskun syitä ymmärretään vielä
heikosti, jolloin tulevan kehityksen arvioiminen on erityisen epävarmaa. Artikkelissa
esitetään skenaarioennuste hedelmällisyyden kehityksestä tulevina vuosikymmeninä
ja pohditaan, mitkä tekijät voivat vaikuttaa tulevaan kehitykseen.

Finland has experienced a rapid and unexpected
period fertility decline since 2010. Recently other
typically high fertility Nordic countries have also
recorded declines in period fertility. Tis article
discusses factors that are likely to afect the development
of fertility trends and forecasts period total fertility
(TFR) in the next two decades in Finland. We base our
forecast on minimum assumptions about future trends.
Our primary scenario was based on a demographically
reasonable assumption that the ongoing fertility
postponement would gradually slow down and come
to an end by 2040. A secondary scenario was based
on a technical assumption that future trends in agespecifc fertility would not exhibit any trend. We built
a probabilistic, random-walk based forecasting model
around both assumptions. Te random variation
around the assumed trend in both scenarios was
estimated based on observed annual historical (1975–
2018) variation in Finland.
In our primary scenario, the 95 per cent confdence
interval for average TFR in the period 2019–2040
ranges from 1.42 to 1.67, with a mean of 1.54. For
single years, the uncertainty in TFR is larger, ranging
from 1.4 to 1.9. In the secondary scenario, the 95 per
cent confdence interval for average TFR is 1.31 to 1.54.
We consider the slowing down of fertility postponement
a reasonable near-future scenario for Finland. Based on
prior literature we identify developments in gender
equality and family policies, economic cycles and
uncertainty, and factors related to childbearing ideals
and partner markets among the central factors that are
likely to infuence the course of fertility in Finland in
the near future. However, it remains challenging to
evaluate their relative importance in shaping future
fertility in Finland.