A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä
A new method for determining the onset times of solar energetic particles and their uncertainties: Poisson-CUSUM bootstrap hybrid method
Tekijät: Palmroos, C.; Dresing, N.; Gieseler, J.; Gutiérrez, C. P.; Vainio, R.
Kustantaja: EDP Sciences
Kustannuspaikka: LES ULIS CEDEX A
Julkaisuvuosi: 2025
Journal: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Tietokannassa oleva lehden nimi: Astronomy & Astrophysics
Lehden akronyymi: ASTRON ASTROPHYS
Artikkelin numero: A221
Vuosikerta: 694
Sivujen määrä: 13
ISSN: 0004-6361
eISSN: 1432-0746
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202451280
Verkko-osoite: https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202451280
Rinnakkaistallenteen osoite: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/491322386
Context. Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are a type of space weather phenomena in which highly energetic charged particles are released from the Sun into interplanetary space by violent and eruptive phenomena, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections. In order to assess the origin of SEPs, an accurate timing of their arrival at spacecraft is of utmost importance. Several methods for determining the starting time of an SEP event at an observer exist, but the uncertainty of this starting time is not assessed in a systematic way by the vast majority of studies.
Aims. Employing a newly developed hybrid method of Poisson-CUSUM combined with bootstrapping, we show that the uncertainty related to the onset of an event in any particular energy range is often more than the mere time resolution of the measuring apparatus, and furthermore, it is not necessarily symmetric with respect to the past and future of the determined onset. In addition, we provide a software tool to the scientific community that applies the presented method and automates the determination of SEP event onset times and their related uncertainties, and it finally allows one to easily perform a velocity dispersion analysis.
Methods. By applying the Poisson-CUSUM method coupled with statistical bootstrapping to SEP event observations, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the method on synthetic and real data, and we compare them to an analysis conducted using a classical approach in which the uncertainty is assumed based on the time resolution of the data.
Results. In the example case, the inferred SEP path length and injection time related to the event, acquired by the velocity dispersion analysis, differ from what is obtained without properly assessing the uncertainty related to the onset times in varying energies. We also present the software package, PyOnset, that automates many steps of the method along with providing powerful data-visualization methods and analysis tools. We release the code to the scientific community as open-source software.
Ladattava julkaisu This is an electronic reprint of the original article. |
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We acknowledge funding by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 / Horizon Europe research and innovation programmes under grant agreements No. 101004159 (SERPENTINE) and No. 101134999 (SOLER). N.D. is grateful for support by the Research Council of Finland (SHOCKSEE, grant No. 346902). The research is performed under the umbrella of the Finnish Centre of Excellence in Research of Sustainable Space (FORESAIL). C.P.G. acknowledges financial support from the Secretary of Universities and Research (Government of Catalonia) and by the Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme of the European Union under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie and the Beatriu de Pinós 2021 BP 00168 programme, from the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MCIN) and the Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI) 10.13039/501100011033 under the PID2020-115253GA-I00 HOSTFLOWS project, and the program Unidad de Excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2020-001058-M.