A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal

A Class of Solvable Multidimensional Stopping Problems in the Presence of Knightian Uncertainty




AuthorsAlvarez E. Luis H. R., Christensen Sören

PublisherCambridge University Press

Publication year2021

JournalAdvances in Applied Probability

Volume53

Issue2

First page 400

Last page424

eISSN1475-6064

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1017/apr.2020.62

Self-archived copy’s web addresshttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/48762495


Abstract

We investigate the impact of Knightian uncertainty on the optimal timing policy of an ambiguity-averse decision-maker in the case where the underlying factor dynamics follow a multidimensional Brownian motion and the exercise payoff depends on either a linear combination of the factors or the radial part of the driving factor dynamics. We present a general characterization of the value of the optimal timing policy and the worst-case measure in terms of a family of explicitly identified excessive functions generating an appropriate class of supermartingales. In line with previous findings based on linear diffusions, we find that ambiguity accelerates timing in comparison with the unambiguous setting. Somewhat surprisingly, we find that ambiguity may lead to stationarity in models which typically do not possess stationary behavior. In this way, our results indicate that ambiguity may act as a stabilizing mechanism.


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