Towards advanced forecasting of solar energetic particle events with the PARASOL model

: Afanasiev, Alexandr; Wijsen, Nicolas; Vainio, Rami

Publisher: EDP Sciences

: LES ULIS CEDEX A

: 2025

: Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

: J SPACE WEATHER SPAC

: 3

: 15

: 18

: 2115-7251

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2024039

: https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2024039

: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/485103160

Gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events are generally attributed to the particle acceleration in shock waves driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Space-weather effects of such events are important, so there has been continuous effort to develop models able to forecast their various characteristics. Here we present the first version of a new such model with the primary goal to address energetic storm particle (ESP) events. The model, PARASOL, is built upon the PArticle Radiation Asset Directed at Interplanetary Space Exploration (PARADISE) test-particle simulation model of SEP transport, but includes a semi-analytical description of an inner (i.e., near the shock) part of the foreshock region. The semi-analytical foreshock description is constructed using simulations with the SOLar Particle Acceleration in Coronal Shocks (SOLPACS) model, which simulates proton acceleration self-consistently coupled with Alfv & eacute;n wave generation upstream of the shock, and subsequent fitting of the simulation results with suitable analytical functions. PARASOL requires input of solar wind and shock magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) parameters. We evaluate the performance of PARASOL by simulating the 12 July 2012 SEP event, using the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) MHD simulation of the solar wind and CME in this event. The PARASOL simulation has reproduced the observed ESP event (E less than or similar to 5 MeV) in the close vicinity of the shock within one order of magnitude in intensity.

swsc240038.pdf

:
This research has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements No 870405 (EUHFORIA 2.0). A.A. and R.V. also acknowledge funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101004159 (SERPENTINE) and from the Finnish Centre of Excellence in Research of Sustainable Space (FORESAIL) funded by the Research Council of Finland (grant no. 352847). This study has been performed in the framework of the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (EU/H2020) under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 955620 (SWATNet). N.W. acknowledges funding from the Research Foundation – Flanders (FWO – Vlaanderen, fellowship no. 1184319N) and the KU Leuven project 3E241013. Computational resources and services used in this work were provided by the Finnish IT Center for Science (CSC) and the FGCI project (Finland) and by the VSC (Flemish Supercomputer Centre), funded by the FWO and the Flemish Government-Department EWI. The editor thanks two anonymous reviewers for their assistance in evaluating this paper.