Hidden Markov modelling of spatio-temporal dynamics of measles in 1750-1850 Finland




Pasanen, Tiia-Maria; Helske, Jouni; Ketola, Tarmo

2024

stat.ME (arXiv Statistics)

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2405.16885

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2405.16885

https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/484112788



Real world spatio-temporal datasets, and phenomena related to them, are often challenging to visualise or gain a general overview of. In order to summarise information encompassed in such data, we combine two well known statistical modelling methods. To account for the spatial dimension, we use the intrinsic modification of the conditional autoregression, and incorporate it with the hidden Markov model, allowing the spatial patterns to vary over time. We apply our method into parish register data considering deaths caused by measles in Finland in 1750-1850, and gain novel insight of previously undiscovered infection dynamics. Five distinctive, reoccurring states describing spatially and temporally differing infection burden and potential routes of spread are identified. We also find that there is a change in the occurrences of the most typical spatial patterns circa 1812, possibly due to changes in communication routes after major administrative transformations in Finland.


Tiia-Maria Pasanen was supported by the Finnish Cultural Foundation, the Emil Aaltonen
Foundation and the Research Council of Finland grant 331817. Jouni Helske was
supported by the Research Council of Finland grants 331817 and 355153. Tarmo Ketola
was supported by the Research Council of Finland grant 278751.


Last updated on 2025-27-01 at 19:55