Economic uncertainty and men’s fertility: analysing the 2010s fertility decline in Finland by field of education and employment characteristics

: Hellstrand, Julia; Nisén, Jessica; Myrskylä, Mikko

: 2025

: MPIDR Working Paper

: 1

: 38

DOI: https://doi.org/10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-001(external)

: https://doi.org/10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-001(external)

In the Nordic countries, the total fertility rate (TFR) fell sharply in the 2010s, and increasing disparities in childbearing outcomes across different levels and fields of education have been documented in previous research. However, the role of economic uncertainty in shaping these fertility trends is not well understood. This study examines the male fertility decline in Finland during the 2010s, focusing on how fertility levels and trends vary by field of education and the economic uncertainty associated with these fields. Using full population register data, the analysis explores total fertility rates (TFR) and the expected shares of men having a first birth (TFRp1) across 122 detailed education groups. We find that fertility declines were stronger in fields with initially lower fertility levels, such as ICT, arts, and humanities, and weaker in fields like health, teaching, and agriculture. Weighted linear regression was used to analyse the association between characteristics reflecting uncertainty and the fertility decline. Fields with higher unemployment, lower income, and lower occupational match saw sharper fertility declines. Additionally, as unemployment decreased and income grew during the 2010s, fertility declines were less pronounced in fields that experienced stronger improvements in these areas. The predictive power of the uncertainty variables increased in the 2010s. The uncertainty model accounted for approximately half of the TFR decline and two-thirds of the TFRp1 decline across different fields. The study highlights the growing disparities in fertility patterns by educational field, underlining the increasing importance of economic security in shaping men’s fertility.

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J.H. was supported by the Strategic Research Council (SRC) of the Academy of Finland, FLUX consortium
(Family Formation in Flux – Causes, Consequences, and Possible Futures), decision numbers 364374 and
2364375, and the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and
innovation programme (grant agreement No 101019329). J.N. was supported by the Academy of
Finland, grant nos. 332863 and 320162 (INVEST Research Flagship), the Strategic Research
Council (SRC) of the Academy of Finland, FLUX consortium (Family Formation in Flux—Causes,
Consequences, and Possible Futures), decision number 345130, and the Rockwool Foundation
(Determinants of later and forgone parenthood in the Nordic countries). M.M. was supported by the
Strategic Research Council (SRC), FLUX consortium, decision numbers 364374 and 364375; by
the National Institute on Aging (R01AG075208); by grants to the Max Planck – University of
Helsinki Center from the Max Planck Society (5714240218), Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation
(210046), Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Helsinki (77204227), and Cities of
Helsinki, Vantaa, and Espoo; and the European Union (ERC Synergy, BIOSFER, 101071773).
Views and opinions expressed are, however, those of the author only and do not necessarily reflect
those of the European Union or the European Research Council. Neither the European Union nor
the granting authority can be held responsible for them. The data underlying this article were
provided by Statistics Finland (license number TK/780/07.03.00/2020-4). Individual-level register
data from Statistics Finland are not freely available.