Policy feedback and voter turnout : Evidence from the Finnish basic income experiment

: Hirvonen, Salomo; Schafer, Jerome; Tukiainen, Janne

Publisher: Wiley

: HOBOKEN

: 2024

: American Journal of Political Science

: AMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE

: AM J POLIT SCI

: 18

: 0092-5853

: 1540-5907

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12915

: https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12915

: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/459119801

In many democracies, unemployed and low-income citizens are less willing to vote. Can social policies weaken the link between income and turnout? We study policy feedback leveraging a unique experiment in Finland, which randomly assigned a sizable group of unemployed to receiving an unconditional basic income (BI) for 2 years (2017-19). Combining individual-level registry and survey data, we show that the intervention has large positive effects on voter turnout. Unconditional BI increases turnout in municipal elections by about 3 percentage points (p.p.), on average, an effect that is concentrated among marginal voters (+ 6-8 p.p.) and persists in national elections after the end of the experiment. Exploring possible mechanisms, our analysis highlights the role of the interpretive effects that follow from unconditionality in the bureaucratic process, including higher levels of political trust and efficacy. We discuss implications for theories of voter turnout and policy feedback, and the design of BI policies.

American J Political Sci - 2024 - Hirvonen - Policy feedback and voter turnout Evidence from the Finnish basic income.pdf

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We are grateful to Stiftung Grundeinkommen, the Bavarian Academy of Sciences, and the European Union (Tukiainen, ERC, INTRAPOL, 101045239) for financial support. Open access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.