A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal

Reflections on critical uncertainties in biofutures




AuthorsTaylor, Amos

PublisherELS Publishing Co. Limited

Publication year2024

JournalRenewable and Sustainable Energy

Journal name in sourceRenewable and Sustainable Energy

Volume2

Issue2

ISSN2959-0760

eISSN2959-0779

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.55092/rse20240006

Web address https://doi.org/10.55092/rse20240006

Self-archived copy’s web addresshttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/458913886


Abstract

This paper reflects upon the concept of Critical Uncertainties, a term drawn from strategic foresight and risk management to identify issues that are highly uncertain and potentially highly impactful on a given strategic context. Given the daunting global challenges we face, the proposed biofutures associated with green transitions could be reimagined to encompass a broader spectrum of uncertainties, including existential risks and unknown unknowns. As global leadership acknowledges global risks, attention should be paid to how to engage these types of issues. This paper observes the participatory process of addressing and contextualising critical uncertainties and suggests that there may be a need for new frames. Planning for what is understood to be uncertain can be contrasted with the need for a new language of uncertainty that we do not yet contemplate. Low uncertainty issues may already be known, seen as sets of alternatives with direct implications, or then higher uncertainty involves even more complex fluid systems, and ultimately there is genuine uncertainty, which we cannot conceive. Within this context of utilising uncertainties, they are reflected upon through two key framings in this paper: imaginaries and future generations, both offering promising avenues for further exploration and inquiry of aspects of uncertainty. This reflexive text aims to reposition critical uncertainties for further study.


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Funding information in the publication
Funding: This work is supported by the Strategic Research Council (SRC) at the Academy of Finland, under the ‘T-winning Spaces 2035’ project and ‘WISE: Creative Adaptation to Wicked Socio-environmental Disruptions’ project (University of Turku 353326/312627).


Last updated on 2025-27-01 at 19:51