A regional study of the relationship between economic conditions, education and parity-specific fertility in Europe

: Nisén, Jessica; Klüsener, Sebastian; Dahlberg, Johan; Dommermuth, Lars; Jasilioniene, Aiva; Kreyenfeld, Michaela; Lappegård, Trude; Li, Peng; Martikainen, Pekka; Neels, Karel; Riederer, Bernhard; te Riele, Saskia; Sulak, Harun; Szabó, Laura; Trimarchi, Alessandra; Viciana, Francisco; Myrskylä, Mikko

: 2024

: INVEST Working Papers

: 98

: 1

: 51

: 2737-0534

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/6eybr

: https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/6eybr

There is a longstanding interest in the link between economic conditions and fertility levels. Most research measuring economic development has focused on national-level patterns and period total fertility levels. This study aims to extend existing knowledge by carrying out a subnational regional analysis of the link between economic conditions and parity-specific fertility, paying particular attention on the role of education. For this we look at three cohort fertility outcomes by women’s level of education: the share of women who remain childless, the mean number of children per mother, and the mean number of children per woman. As data source we use harmonized register, census, and large-scale survey data from 15 European countries. We focus on women born in the late 1960s and measure their fertility at the end of their reproductive career. This information we combine with the regional GDP per capita of their region of residence at that time. Our findings show that, conditional on having become a mother, cohort fertility associates with economic development positively at the country level among high-educated women, but not among low-educated women. At the regional level within countries, the negative association between economic development and fertility among mothers is weaker among women with higher levels of education. In contrast, childlessness tends to be higher in countries and in sub-national regions characterized by higher GDP per capita levels. These findings suggest that continued childbearing by highly educated women plays an important role in offsetting high levels of childlessness in countries and regions with favourable economic conditions in Europe.

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Nisén was supported by the Academy of Finland, grant nr. 332863 and 320162 (INVEST Research Flagship), by the Strategic Research Council (SRC) of the Academy of Finland, grant nr. 345130 and 345131 (Family Formation in Flux – Causes, Consequences, and Possible Futures, FLUX), and the ROCKWOOL Foundation (Determinants of later and forgone parenthood in the Nordic countries). Lappegård and Dommermuth acknowledge support from the Research Council of Norway (project no. 300870). Martikainen was supported by the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 101019329), the SRC within the Academy of Finland grants for ACElife (#352543-352572) and LIFECON (# 345219). Trimarchi acknowledges the support from the French National Research Agency (Grant Nr. ANR-16-CE41-0007-01, PI: Laurent Toulemon). Myrskylä was supported by the SRC, FLUX consortium, decision numbers 345130 and 345131; by the National Institute on Aging (R01AG075208); and the European Union (ERC Synergy, BIOSFER, 101071773). Views and opinions expressed are, however, those of the author only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Research Council. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. Martikainen and Myrskylä were also supported by grants to the Max Planck – University of Helsinki Center from the Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation (#210046), the Max Planck Society (#5714240218), University of Helsinki (#77204227), and Cities of Helsinki, Vantaa and Espoo.Jessica Nisén1,2,3* jessica.nisen@utu.fi Sebastian Klüsener2,4,5 sebastian.kluesener@bib.bund.de Johan Dahlberg6 johan.dahlberg@sociology.su.se Lars Dommermuth7 lars.dommermuth@ssb.no Aiva Jasilioniene2 jasilioniene@demogr.mpg.de Michaela Kreyenfeld8 kreyenfeld@hertie-school.org Trude Lappegård9 trude.lappegard@sosgeo.uio.no Peng Li2 li@demogr.mpg.de Pekka Martikainen2,3,10 pekka.martikainen@helsinki.fi Karel Neels11 karel.neels@uantwerpen.be Bernhard Riederer12,13 bernhard.riederer@oeaw.ac.at Saskia te Riele14 smm.teriele@cbs.nl Harun Sulak4 harun.sulak@bib.bund.de Laura Szabó15 szabo@demografia.hu Alessandra Trimarchi16 alessandra.trimarchi@unime.it Francisco Viciana17 franciscoj.viciana@juntadeandalucia.es Mikko Myrskylä2,3,10 myrskyla@demogr.mpg.de