SIR+ models : accounting for interaction-dependent disease susceptibility in the planning of public health interventions
: Martignoni, Maria M.; Raulo, Aura; Linkovski, Omer; Kolodny, Oren
Publisher: Springer Nature
: 2024
: Scientific Reports
: Scientific reports
: Sci Rep
: 12908
: 14
: 1
: 2045-2322
: 2045-2322
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-63008-9
: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-63008-9
: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/454777713
Avoiding physical contact is regarded as one of the safest and most advisable strategies to follow to reduce pathogen spread. The flip side of this approach is that a lack of social interactions may negatively affect other dimensions of health, like induction of immunosuppressive anxiety and depression or preventing interactions of importance with a diversity of microbes, which may be necessary to train our immune system or to maintain its normal levels of activity. These may in turn negatively affect a population's susceptibility to infection and the incidence of severe disease. We suggest that future pandemic modelling may benefit from relying on 'SIR+ models': epidemiological models extended to account for the benefits of social interactions that affect immune resilience. We develop an SIR+ model and discuss which specific interventions may be more effective in balancing the trade-off between minimizing pathogen spread and maximizing other interaction-dependent health benefits. Our SIR+ model reflects the idea that health is not just the mere absence of disease, but rather a state of physical, mental and social well-being that can also be dependent on the same social connections that allow pathogen spread, and the modelling of public health interventions for future pandemics should account for this multidimensionality.
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All authors certify that they have no affiliations with or involvement in any organization or entity with any financial interest or non-financial interest in the subject matter or materials discussed in this manuscript. The authors have no financial or proprietary interests in any material discussed in this article. All authors agree with the present manuscript. This study did not require any human involvement, and no human data was taken during the study.
