Abstract

Climate changes can seriously affect
the environment and rural communities, water availability, health, food
security, biodiversity, and agricultural production. Farmers in Africa who
depend on rain to grow crops are already recognizing the effects of changing
climate. Weather is essential to farmers' for their decision-making.

The present study analysed spatial
and temporal trends of precipitation and temperatures over Morogoro Region by
using available climate data from meteorological agencies. The weather data was
analysed during the period of 1991–2015 for the mean monthly precipitation and
temperature and predicted the monthly precipitation and temperature by using
the time series analysis. The result showed that climate is highly variable
from arid to humid. At the same time, the trend line of mean monthly showed a
slightly decreasing linear trend in precipitation and an increase in
temperature. The forecast values of the rain and temperature until 2025 by the
decomposition method with the multiplicative model showed that precipitation in
May – October will be low. Moreover, the seasonal indices predict that
precipitation in those months will be lower than the previous normal level. The
probable future trends should be carefully considered to help farmers in
selecting proper strategies in their farms.

  Corresponding author: Dayoub, M.; Email: modayo@utu.fi