A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Exposure of wetlands important for nonbreeding waterbirds to sea-level rise in the Mediterranean
Authors: Verniest Fabien, Galewski Thomas, Boutron Olivier, Dami Laura, Defos du Rau Pierre, Guelmami Anis, Julliard Romain, Popoff Nadège, Suet Marie, Willm Loïc, Abdou Wed, Azafzaf Hichem, Bendjedda Nadjiba, Bino Taulant, Borg John J., Božič Luka, Dakki Mohamed, Hamoumi Rhimou El, Encarnação Vitor, Erciyas-Yavuz Kiraz, Etayeb Khaled, Georgiev Valeri, Hamada Ayman, Hatzofe Ohad, Ieronymidou Christina, Langendoen Tom, Mikuska Tibor, Molina Blas, Moniz Filipe, Moussy Caroline, Ouassou Asmaâ, Petkov Nicky, Portolou Danae, Qaneer Tareq, Sayoud Samir, Šćiban Marko, Topić Goran, Uzunova Danka, Vine Gal, Vizi Andrej, Xeka Erald, Zenatello Marco, Gaget Elie, Viol Isabelle Le
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
Publication year: 2024
Journal: Conservation Biology
Journal name in source: Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
Journal acronym: Conserv Biol
Article number: e14288
Volume: 38
Issue: 6
ISSN: 0888-8892
eISSN: 1523-1739
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.14288
Web address : https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.14288
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/404683180
Sea-level rise (SLR) is expected to cause major changes to coastal wetlands, which are among the world's most vulnerable ecosystems and are critical for nonbreeding waterbirds. Because strategies for adaptation to SLR, such as nature-based solutions and designation of protected areas, can locally reduce the negative effects of coastal flooding under SLR on coastal wetlands, it is crucial to prioritize adaptation efforts, especially for wetlands of international importance for biodiversity. We assessed the exposure of coastal wetlands important for nonbreeding waterbirds to projected SLR along the Mediterranean coasts of 8 countries by modeling future coastal flooding under 7 scenarios of SLR by 2100 (from 44- to 161-cm rise) with a static inundation approach. Exposure to coastal flooding under future SLR was assessed for 938 Mediterranean coastal sites (≤30 km from the coastline) where 145 species of nonbreeding birds were monitored as part of the International Waterbird Census and for which the monitoring area was delineated by a polygon (64.3% of the coastal sites monitored in the Mediterranean region). Thirty-four percent of sites were threatened by future SLR, even under the most optimistic scenarios. Protected study sites and study sites of international importance for waterbirds were, respectively, 1.5 and 2 times more exposed to SLR than the other sites under the most optimistic scenario. Accordingly, we advocate for the development of a prioritization scheme to be applied to these wetlands for the implementation of strategies for adaptation to SLR to anticipate the effects of coastal flooding. Our study provides major guidance for conservation planning under global change in several countries of the Mediterranean region.
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