A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Weak Signals and Wild Cards Leading to Transformative Disruption: A Consumer Delphi Study on the Future of e-Commerce in China
Authors: Yuan Qi, Petri Tapio
Publisher: Sage
Publication year: 2018
Journal: World Futures Review
Volume: 10
Issue: 1
First page : 54
Last page: 82
eISSN: 2169-2793
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756717752921
Web address : https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756717752921
Abstract
The future of businesses is not only orchestrated by emerging trends and
megatrends but also to a greater extent struck by surprising events.
With the accelerating presence of high-tech innovations and smart
technologies, business activities are exposed to an increasingly
volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous environment. Any unexpected
changes in the environment could lead to the malfunction or even
collapse of a company, a business, or even an industry. Discerning the
seeds of change and anticipating the potential disruptions in the
external environment is a precondition for avoiding potential risks and
threats. The present study contributes to the conceptual and
methodological discussion of disruptive transformation by identifying,
analyzing, and interpreting the potential disruptive factors in the
external business environment. The venture is undertaken through the
lens of probing into the dynamism of China’s e-commerce industry,
considering its growing influence both domestically and abroad. Any
unexpected disruptions would result in a significant ripple effect on
interrelated businesses, industries, and even economies. The research
adopts a combined mode of qualitative and quantitative methods in the
form of horizon scanning and a Consumer Delphi study. Horizon scanning
collects futures signals indicating the seeds of change (i.e., weak
signals) and potential disruptions (i.e., wild cards), whereas Delphi
study solicits the evaluations on the degree of likelihood and impact of
the collected factors from an expert panel. As a result, twenty-seven
potential disruptive factors are discovered, categorized, estimated, and
discussed.
The future of businesses is not only orchestrated by emerging trends and
megatrends but also to a greater extent struck by surprising events.
With the accelerating presence of high-tech innovations and smart
technologies, business activities are exposed to an increasingly
volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous environment. Any unexpected
changes in the environment could lead to the malfunction or even
collapse of a company, a business, or even an industry. Discerning the
seeds of change and anticipating the potential disruptions in the
external environment is a precondition for avoiding potential risks and
threats. The present study contributes to the conceptual and
methodological discussion of disruptive transformation by identifying,
analyzing, and interpreting the potential disruptive factors in the
external business environment. The venture is undertaken through the
lens of probing into the dynamism of China’s e-commerce industry,
considering its growing influence both domestically and abroad. Any
unexpected disruptions would result in a significant ripple effect on
interrelated businesses, industries, and even economies. The research
adopts a combined mode of qualitative and quantitative methods in the
form of horizon scanning and a Consumer Delphi study. Horizon scanning
collects futures signals indicating the seeds of change (i.e., weak
signals) and potential disruptions (i.e., wild cards), whereas Delphi
study solicits the evaluations on the degree of likelihood and impact of
the collected factors from an expert panel. As a result, twenty-seven
potential disruptive factors are discovered, categorized, estimated, and
discussed.
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