A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä
Least-cost decarbonization pathways for electricity generation in Finland : A convex quantile regression approach
Tekijät: Kuosmanen, Natalia; Kuosmanen, Timo; Maczulskij, Terhi; Zhou, Xun
Kustantaja: Elsevier
Julkaisuvuosi: 2024
Journal: Journal of Environmental Management
Tietokannassa oleva lehden nimi: Journal of Environmental Management
Artikkelin numero: 120848
Vuosikerta: 359
ISSN: 0301-4797
eISSN: 1095-8630
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120848
Verkko-osoite: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120848
Rinnakkaistallenteen osoite: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/393423496
Preprintin osoite: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/290563/1/1882459946.pdf
This study investigates the least-cost decarbonization pathways in the Finnish electricity generation industry in order to achieve the national carbon neutrality goal by 2035. Various abatement measures, such as downscaling production, capital investment, and increasing labor and intermediate inputs, are considered. The marginal abatement costs (MACs) of greenhouse gas emissions are estimated using the convex quantile regression method and applied to unique register-based firm-level greenhouse gas emission data merged with financial statement data. We adjust the MAC estimates for the sample selection bias caused by zero-emission firms by applying the two-stage Heckman correction. Our empirical findings reveal that the median MAC ranges from 0.1 to 3.5 euros per tonne of CO2 equivalent. The projected economic cost of a 90% reduction in emissions is 62 million euros, while the estimated cost of achieving zero emissions is 83 million euros.
Julkaisussa olevat rahoitustiedot:
The financial support provided by Business Finland as part of the larger project “Innovation-led Pathways to Economic Growth” is gratefully acknowledged.
