A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Taking the beat of the Arctic : are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate?
Authors: Gauthier Gilles, Ehrich Dorothée, Belke-Brea Maria, Domine Florent, Alisauskas Ray, Clark Karin, Ecke Frauke, Eide Nina E., Framstad Erik, Frandsen Jay, Gilg Olivier, Henttonen Heikki, Hörnfeldt Birger, Kataev Gennadiy D., Menyushina Irina E., Oksanen Lauri, Oksanen Tarja, Olofsson Johan, Samelius Gustaf, Sittler Benoit, Smith Paul A., Sokolov Aleksandr A., Sokolova Natalia A., Schmidt Niels M.
Publisher: Royal Society Publishing
Publication year: 2024
Journal: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Journal name in source: PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
Journal acronym: P ROY SOC B-BIOL SCI
Article number: 20232361
Volume: 291
Issue: 2016
Number of pages: 10
ISSN: 0962-8452
eISSN: 1471-2954
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.2361
Web address : https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2023.2361
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10865006/
Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar region, we show that virtually all populations displayed alternating periods of cyclic/non-cyclic fluctuations over the past four decades. Cyclic patterns were detected 55% of the time (n = 649 years pooled across sites) with a median periodicity of 3.7 years, and non-cyclic periods were not more frequent in recent years. Overall, there was an indication for a negative effect of warm spells occurring during the snow onset period of the preceding year on lemming abundance. However, winter duration or early winter climatic conditions did not differ on average between cyclic and non-cyclic periods. Analysis of the time series shows that there is presently no Arctic-wide collapse of lemming cycles, even though cycles have been sporadic at most sites during the last decades. Although non-stationary dynamics appears a common feature of lemming populations also in the past, continued warming in early winter may decrease the frequency of periodic irruptions with negative consequences for tundra ecosystems.
