A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal

Modelling the impact of higher temperature on the phytoplankton of a boreal lake




AuthorsAnita Pätynen, J. Alex Elliott, Petri Kiuru, Jouko Sarvala, Anne-Mari Ventelä, Roger I. Jones

PublisherFINNISH ENVIRONMENT INST

Publication year2014

JournalBoreal Environment Research

Journal name in sourceBOREAL ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH

Journal acronymBOREAL ENVIRON RES

Volume19

Issue1

First page 66

Last page78

Number of pages13

ISSN1239-6095

Web address http://www.borenv.net/BER/pdfs/ber19/ber19-066.pdf


Abstract

We linked the models PROTECH and MyLake to test potential impacts of climate-changeinduced warming on the phytoplankton community of Pyhajarvi, a lake in southwest Finland. First, we calibrated the models for the present conditions, which revealed an apparent high significance of internal nutrient loading for Pyhajarvi. We then estimated the effect of two climate change scenarios on lake water temperatures and ice cover duration with MyLake. Finally, we used those outputs to drive PROTECH to predict the resultant phytoplankton community. It was evident that cyanobacteria will grow significantly better in warmer water, especially in the summer. Even if phosphorus and nitrogen loads to the lake remain the same and there is little change in the total chlorophyll a concentrations, a higher proportion of the phytoplankton community could be dominated by cyanobacteria. The model outputs provided no clear evidence that earlier ice break would advance the timing of the diatom spring bloom.



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