A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä
Comparison of several climate indices as inputs in modelling of the Baltic Sea runoff
Tekijät: Hanninen J, Vuorinen I
Kustantaja: FINNISH ENVIRONMENT INST
Julkaisuvuosi: 2012
Journal: Boreal Environment Research
Tietokannassa oleva lehden nimi: BOREAL ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH
Lehden akronyymi: BOREAL ENVIRON RES
Numero sarjassa: 5
Vuosikerta: 17
Numero: 5
Aloitussivu: 377
Lopetussivu: 384
Sivujen määrä: 8
ISSN: 1239-6095
Verkko-osoite: http://www.borenv.net/BER/pdfs/ber17/ber17-377.pdf
Tiivistelmä
Using Transfer function (TF) models, we have earlier presented a chain of events between changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their oceanographical and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea. Here we tested whether other climate indices as inputs would improve TF models, and our understanding of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Besides NAO, the predictors were the Arctic Oscillation (AO), sea-level air pressures at Iceland (SLP), and wind speeds at Hoburg (Gotland). All indices produced good TF models when the total riverine runoff to the Baltic Sea was used as a modelling basis. AO was not applicable in all study areas, showing a delay of about half a year between climate and runoff events, connected with freezing and melting time of ice and snow in the northern catchment area of the Baltic Sea. NAO appeared to be most useful modelling tool as its area of applicability was the widest of the tested indices, and the time lag between climate and runoff events was the shortest. SLP and Hoburg wind speeds showed largely same results as NAO, but with smaller areal applicability. Thus AO and NAO were both mostly contributing to the general understanding of climate control of runoff events in the Baltic Sea ecosystem.
Using Transfer function (TF) models, we have earlier presented a chain of events between changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their oceanographical and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea. Here we tested whether other climate indices as inputs would improve TF models, and our understanding of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Besides NAO, the predictors were the Arctic Oscillation (AO), sea-level air pressures at Iceland (SLP), and wind speeds at Hoburg (Gotland). All indices produced good TF models when the total riverine runoff to the Baltic Sea was used as a modelling basis. AO was not applicable in all study areas, showing a delay of about half a year between climate and runoff events, connected with freezing and melting time of ice and snow in the northern catchment area of the Baltic Sea. NAO appeared to be most useful modelling tool as its area of applicability was the widest of the tested indices, and the time lag between climate and runoff events was the shortest. SLP and Hoburg wind speeds showed largely same results as NAO, but with smaller areal applicability. Thus AO and NAO were both mostly contributing to the general understanding of climate control of runoff events in the Baltic Sea ecosystem.
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