A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
EXIT: An alternative approach for structural cross-impact modeling and analysis
Authors: J. Panula-Ontto, K.A. Piirainen
Publisher: Elsevier Inc.
Publication year: 2018
Journal:: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Journal name in source: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume: 137
First page : 89
Last page: 100
Number of pages: 12
ISSN: 0040-1625
eISSN: 1873-5509
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.06.046
Web address : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.06.046
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/35417079
Cross-impact methods are planning, foresight and decision support tools
often used in conjunction with the scenario technique. They enable
systems modeling in a theory-driven way, grounded in expert judgment and
understanding. This article presents the EXIT approach, a novel
modeling technique and a computational method for structural
cross-impact analysis. EXIT extracts insights from an expert-sourced
cross-impact model, which describes the structure of direct interactions
within a system. The EXIT transformation produces a relative
quantification of the emergent, systemic relationships between model
components, effectuating over the complex web of interactions in the
system. Compared to the more established matrix multiplication approach,
EXIT produces novel and more detailed analytical outputs on the basis
of similar input, and offers new analytical possibilities in structural
cross-impact analysis. A software implementing the EXIT transformation
is freely available.
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