A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä
Can bubble theory foresee banking crises?
Tekijät: Timo Virtanen, Eero Tölö, Matti Virén, Katja Taipalus
Kustantaja: Elsevier
Julkaisuvuosi: 2018
Journal: Journal of Financial Stability
Tietokannassa oleva lehden nimi: Journal of Financial Stability
Vuosikerta: 36
Aloitussivu: 66
Lopetussivu: 81
Sivujen määrä: 16
ISSN: 1572-3089
eISSN: 1878-0962
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2018.02.008
Verkko-osoite: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2018.02.008
Rinnakkaistallenteen osoite: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/30773323
We consider the effectiveness of unit root exuberance tests in predicting banking crises. Using a sample of 15 EU countries over the past three decades, our crisis dating follows the scheme of the European Systemic Risk Board. The exuberance indicators slightly outperform benchmark signaling and logit models. Variables based on credit- and debt-service are identified as better predictors than housing market variables, which in turn outperform stock market variables. The results corroborate the existing literature, which says financial crises are typically preceded by leveraged bubbles, and more specifically, that initial bubble signals from explosive growth in credit and asset prices are followed by a lift-off in debt-servicing costs as a financial crisis nears. The risk of financial crisis peaks just after the bubble bursts. Our results indicate that exuberance tests, which can be used in crisis prediction in a manner similar to conventional early warning models, may be readily incorporated into the toolkit of financial stability supervisors.
Ladattava julkaisu This is an electronic reprint of the original article. |