A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal

Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables: Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption




AuthorsJuha Panula-Ontto, Jyrki Luukkanen, Jari Kaivo-oja, Tadhg O'Mahony, Jarmo Vehmas, Seppo Valkealahti, Tomas Björkqvist, Timo Korpela, Pertti Järventausta, Yrjö Majanne, Matti Kojo, Pami Aalto, Pirkko Harsia, Kari Kallioharju, Hannele Holttinen, Sami Repo

PublisherElsevier

Publishing placeAmsterdam

Publication year2018

JournalEnergy Policy

Journal acronymEP

Volume118

IssueJuly

First page 504

Last page513

Number of pages10

ISSN0301-4215

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.009

Web address https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421518302246

Self-archived copy’s web addresshttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/30661187


Abstract
Abstract

Climate change and global economic pressures are strong drivers for energy economies to transition towards climate-neutrality, low-carbon economy and better energy and resource efficiencies. The response to these pressures, namely the increased use of renewable energy, creates a set of new challenges related to supply-demand balance for energy policy and electricity system planning. This study analyses the emergent problems resulting from the renewable energy response. These complex aspects of change in the electricity system are analysed with a cross-impact model based on an expert-driven modeling process, consisting of workshops, panel evaluations and individual expert work. The model is then analysed using a novel computational cross-impact technique, EXIT. The objective of the study is to map the important direct drivers of change in the period 2017–2030 in electricity consumption and production in Finland, construct a cross-impact model from this basis, and discover the emergent and systemic dynamics of the modeled system by analysis of this model.


Downloadable publication

This is an electronic reprint of the original article.
This reprint may differ from the original in pagination and typographic detail. Please cite the original version.





Last updated on 2024-26-11 at 11:06