U.S. metropolitan house price dynamics




Elias Oikarinen, Steven C Bourassa, Martin Hoesli, Janne Engblom

PublisherElsevier

2018

Journal of Urban Economics

105

54

69

16

0094-1190

1095-9068

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2018.03.001

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2018.03.001

https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/30403053



Using data for 70 U.S. metropolitan areas, this study explores spatial heterogeneity in house price dynamics. We use recent advances in panel econometrics that allow for spatial heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and non-stationary but cointegrated data. We test for spatial differences and analyze the relationship between the price elasticity of housing supply and the income elasticity of prices, as well as bubble size and duration. The long-term elasticity of house prices with respect to aggregate personal income averages 0.81, but varies considerably across metropolitan areas. The long-term income elasticity generally is greater in the more supply-inelastic metropolitan areas, and we show that bubble size and duration are inversely related to supply elasticity. Also short-term momentum and reversion dynamics show substantial spatial heterogeneity.


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