K-Waves, Reflexive Foresight, and the Future of Anticipation in the Next Socioeconomic Cycle - UTU Tutkimustietojärjestelmä - UTU Tutkimustietojärjestelmä

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K-Waves, Reflexive Foresight, and the Future of Anticipation in the Next Socioeconomic Cycle

Tekijät: Markku Wilenius, Sofi Kurki

Toimittaja: Roberto Poli

Julkaisuvuosi: 2017

Kokoomateoksen nimi: Handbook of Anticipation

eISBN: 978-3-319-31737-3

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_36-1

Verkko-osoite: https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_36-1

Tiivistelmä

Abstract

Anticipation refers to the many
ways the future as a concept, and a dimension in our mental maps, is used for
making informed decisions in the present. In this chapter, we introduce the
long-term socioeconomic cycle framework, known as the Kondratieff wave theory,
as a central anticipatory tool for understanding large-scale socioeconomic
change. We present the K-waves theory in brief, focusing especially on the
implications of the systemic reorganization for the social practices in each
new wave. We then continue on to demonstrate how the K-waves framework can be
used for anticipating the drivers for the next, sixth Kondratieff wave.
Building on empirical data from networked, human-centric organizations, we
explore a potential paradigm shift in the anticipatory practices for the next
wave. We argue that the K-waves framework can be used for understanding the
history and development of how societies change friom past to future in dynamic
patterns. We conclude by outlining the key features of this new foresight
paradigm we call reflexive foresight.