A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Climate and traffic: prospects for Finland
Authors: Tapio Petri
Publisher: Elsevier
Publication year: 2002
Journal: Global Environmental Change
Journal name in source: GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
Journal acronym: GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG
Article number: PII S0959-3780(01)00022-X
Volume: 12
Issue: 1
First page : 53
Last page: 68
Number of pages: 16
ISSN: 0959-3780
eISSN: 1872-9495
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00022-X
Web address : https://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00022-X
Abstract
The paper contributes a 'soft' way of making scenarios for climate policy that takes into account the diverse views of various interest groups. A two-rounded Delphi method is used to produce scenarios for a transport CO2 police for Finland. Quantitative statements of the interest groups are run with cluster analysis and qualitative arguments for the statements are attached to the clusters. The resulting six clusters are interpreted in the light of theoretical strategic scenarios of transport and environment, which take different positions on dematerialisation and immaterialisation. Although one could observe only little dematerialisation and no immaterialisation in the relationships between GDP, road traffic volume and CO2 emissions from road traffic in Finland from 1970-1996, all of the clusters anticipate dematerialisation and five, immaterialisation during 1997-2025. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
The paper contributes a 'soft' way of making scenarios for climate policy that takes into account the diverse views of various interest groups. A two-rounded Delphi method is used to produce scenarios for a transport CO2 police for Finland. Quantitative statements of the interest groups are run with cluster analysis and qualitative arguments for the statements are attached to the clusters. The resulting six clusters are interpreted in the light of theoretical strategic scenarios of transport and environment, which take different positions on dematerialisation and immaterialisation. Although one could observe only little dematerialisation and no immaterialisation in the relationships between GDP, road traffic volume and CO2 emissions from road traffic in Finland from 1970-1996, all of the clusters anticipate dematerialisation and five, immaterialisation during 1997-2025. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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