A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal

Climate and traffic: prospects for Finland




AuthorsTapio Petri

PublisherElsevier

Publication year2002

JournalGlobal Environmental Change

Journal name in sourceGLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS

Journal acronymGLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG

Article numberPII S0959-3780(01)00022-X

Volume12

Issue1

First page 53

Last page68

Number of pages16

ISSN0959-3780

eISSN1872-9495

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00022-X(external)

Web address https://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00022-X(external)


Abstract
The paper contributes a 'soft' way of making scenarios for climate policy that takes into account the diverse views of various interest groups. A two-rounded Delphi method is used to produce scenarios for a transport CO2 police for Finland. Quantitative statements of the interest groups are run with cluster analysis and qualitative arguments for the statements are attached to the clusters. The resulting six clusters are interpreted in the light of theoretical strategic scenarios of transport and environment, which take different positions on dematerialisation and immaterialisation. Although one could observe only little dematerialisation and no immaterialisation in the relationships between GDP, road traffic volume and CO2 emissions from road traffic in Finland from 1970-1996, all of the clusters anticipate dematerialisation and five, immaterialisation during 1997-2025. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.



Last updated on 2024-26-11 at 22:05