A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Decarbonizing road freight in the future - Detailed scenarios of the carbon emissions of Finnish road freight transport in 2030 using a Delphi method approach
Authors: Liimatainen H, Kallionpaa E, Pollanen M, Stenholm P, Tapio P, McKinnon A
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
Publication year: 2014
Journal: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Journal name in source: TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
Journal acronym: TECHNOL FORECAST SOC
Volume: 81
Issue: 1
First page : 177
Last page: 191
Number of pages: 15
ISSN: 0040-1625
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.03.001
Web address : http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162513000486
Abstract
Research on the future of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of road freight transport in Finland is reported in this paper. Delphi method is utilized to forecast the changes of GDP and seven indicators which determine the CO2 emissions of road freight. Information about the factors affecting the future of these indicators was also collected and an innovative method for acquiring qualitative data in the first round of Delphi study and quantifying it in the second round is presented. Cluster analysis is used to create six scenarios for 2030. The scenarios are mostly driven by different economic developments, which result in very different demand for transport. Despite of this, all scenarios forecast at least 26% reduction in CO2 emissions from 2010 level, while the maximum reduction in one of the scenarios is 74%. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Research on the future of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of road freight transport in Finland is reported in this paper. Delphi method is utilized to forecast the changes of GDP and seven indicators which determine the CO2 emissions of road freight. Information about the factors affecting the future of these indicators was also collected and an innovative method for acquiring qualitative data in the first round of Delphi study and quantifying it in the second round is presented. Cluster analysis is used to create six scenarios for 2030. The scenarios are mostly driven by different economic developments, which result in very different demand for transport. Despite of this, all scenarios forecast at least 26% reduction in CO2 emissions from 2010 level, while the maximum reduction in one of the scenarios is 74%. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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