D4 Julkaistu kehittämis- tai tutkimusraportti tai -selvitys
Surfing the Sixth Wave. Exploring the next 40 years of global change – Exploring the next 40 years of global change
Alaotsikko: Exploring the next 40 years of global change
Tekijät: Markku Wilenius, Sofi Kurki
Kustantaja: Finland Futures Reseach Centre
Kustannuspaikka: Turku
Julkaisuvuosi: 2012
Aloitussivu: 8
Lopetussivu: 126
ISBN: 978-952-249-255-5
eISBN: 978-952-249-254-8
Verkko-osoite: http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/eBook_2012-10.pdf
This is the first report published for the project The 6th Wave and Systemic Innovations for Finland: Success Factors for Years 2010–2050 (6th WAVE). In it we present the Kondratieff long cycle theory (K-Wave for short) as a framework for anticipating the medium to long term future (2010–2050), with regard to current megatrends and drivers of change as well as potential game changers for the next wave of development. The report comprises the first results of our theoretical work, based on a comprehensive literature review of previous K-wave studies, and an analysis of key technologies and societal issues we believe act as catalysts for the coming paradigm shift in economies and societies. The potential implications of these factors for Finland are explored in the context of established Finnish industries and emerging new fields, taking into account the technological and societal trends that pose challenges for the continuation of the status quo. The work goes out from the assumption that the major challenges which act as drivers for the next cycle – grave environmental problems, and the need to re-think the current welfare system in order to create a sustainable model for the future – imply that solutions will need to be systemic and able to induce significant societal transformations. While full solutions to these questions obviously lie beyond the scope of this project, our study uses the Kondratieff wave theory as a framework for understanding and identifying the potential for systemic innovation in Finland in the emerging cycle. We present our general findings in a global context, but with a special interest in looking at their implications for Finland. The Sixth Wave project is funded by Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation.