D4 Julkaistu kehittämis- tai tutkimusraportti tai -selvitys
Energy models and scenarios in the era of climate change – Briefing report
Alaotsikko: Briefing report
Tekijät: Karjalainen Joni, Käkönen Mira, Luukkanen Jyrki, Vehmas Jarmo
Kustantaja: Finland Futures Research Centre
Julkaisuvuosi: 2014
eISBN: 978-952-249-275-3
Verkko-osoite: https://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/eBook_3-2014.pdf
Tiivistelmä
Fossil fuel-based energy consumption drives climate change
Energy represents over 80% of human-caused greenhouse gases. Energy consumption is rising and the world energy system is 82-percent reliant on fossil fuels. Investments into the current energy infrastructure cause a considerable “lock-in” effect because they bear a long trajectory. The fossil fuel economy plans to
burn approximately 2 795 Gt of carbon, which is a carbon budget five times too high, if the world aims to stay below an average +2°C warming. In the 20th century, energy consumption has not fallen, and only energy efficiencies have been obtained as a result of technology improvements. In 2011, the support to renewable energies stood at USD 88 billion while fossil fuel subsidies were estimated to range from USD 523
billion to USD 1.9 trillion.
Could energy scenarios of the industrial era undermine a low-carbon energy
future?
Today, energy models should be understood as representations of the energy sub-system whose functions are embedded within a physical reality. The emergence of many energy models in the 1950s largely coincided with the need to develop the industrial economy. Detailed techno-economic models were only developed
in the early 1970s as a response to the oil crisis. Past research seems to suggest that certain energy forecasting scenarios have exaggerated future energy demand, which has justified the construction of large energy plants, and in turn lead to overcapacity in industrialised and developing countries (and consequently
higher carbon emissions levels). The use of historical energy consumption data and forecasting scenarios may partially explain why this might have been the case. For such reasons, it is important to recognize that assumptions in energy modelling and policy-making always reflect normative choices and judgment on the part of the modeller, or the decision-maker.
The 21st century aspires for deliberative and open energy policy to meet
climate targets
If the world is to meet the climate change targets, low-carbon energy scenarios and energy models may help in the evaluation of future energy options. Past evidence suggests that traditionally, public administration has tended to listen established industry actors more closely than small-and-medium-sized enterprises, advocacy groups, or communities. An aspiration to openly discuss politics that influence citizens is known as the deliberative turn in democracy, and challenges established policy-making institutions at the national and international level. In terms of recommendations for climate change mitigation and energy policy, some of
these institutions may have taken overly conservative stances. A step towards the acceptance of a diversity of views in energy policy and energy modelling could be the opening of all assumptions that guide policymaking and model-making.
Although scenarios are not policy recommendations, this report also finds that certain energy scenarios search pathways that meet the climate targets more determinedly than energy scenarios that tend to favour a business-as-usual situation.
Fossil fuel-based energy consumption drives climate change
Energy represents over 80% of human-caused greenhouse gases. Energy consumption is rising and the world energy system is 82-percent reliant on fossil fuels. Investments into the current energy infrastructure cause a considerable “lock-in” effect because they bear a long trajectory. The fossil fuel economy plans to
burn approximately 2 795 Gt of carbon, which is a carbon budget five times too high, if the world aims to stay below an average +2°C warming. In the 20th century, energy consumption has not fallen, and only energy efficiencies have been obtained as a result of technology improvements. In 2011, the support to renewable energies stood at USD 88 billion while fossil fuel subsidies were estimated to range from USD 523
billion to USD 1.9 trillion.
Could energy scenarios of the industrial era undermine a low-carbon energy
future?
Today, energy models should be understood as representations of the energy sub-system whose functions are embedded within a physical reality. The emergence of many energy models in the 1950s largely coincided with the need to develop the industrial economy. Detailed techno-economic models were only developed
in the early 1970s as a response to the oil crisis. Past research seems to suggest that certain energy forecasting scenarios have exaggerated future energy demand, which has justified the construction of large energy plants, and in turn lead to overcapacity in industrialised and developing countries (and consequently
higher carbon emissions levels). The use of historical energy consumption data and forecasting scenarios may partially explain why this might have been the case. For such reasons, it is important to recognize that assumptions in energy modelling and policy-making always reflect normative choices and judgment on the part of the modeller, or the decision-maker.
The 21st century aspires for deliberative and open energy policy to meet
climate targets
If the world is to meet the climate change targets, low-carbon energy scenarios and energy models may help in the evaluation of future energy options. Past evidence suggests that traditionally, public administration has tended to listen established industry actors more closely than small-and-medium-sized enterprises, advocacy groups, or communities. An aspiration to openly discuss politics that influence citizens is known as the deliberative turn in democracy, and challenges established policy-making institutions at the national and international level. In terms of recommendations for climate change mitigation and energy policy, some of
these institutions may have taken overly conservative stances. A step towards the acceptance of a diversity of views in energy policy and energy modelling could be the opening of all assumptions that guide policymaking and model-making.
Although scenarios are not policy recommendations, this report also finds that certain energy scenarios search pathways that meet the climate targets more determinedly than energy scenarios that tend to favour a business-as-usual situation.
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