A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal

Increased volatility in video poker results in more winning players but shorter winning streaks - Evidence from simulations




AuthorsPalomäki Jussi, Turner Nigel, Macey Joseph, Castrén Sari

PublisherAkadémiai Kiadó

Publication year2023

JournalJournal of behavioral addictions

Journal name in sourceJOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL ADDICTIONS

Volume12

Issue3

First page 711

Last page720

ISSN2062-5871

eISSN2063-5303

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1556/2006.2023.00048

Web address https://doi.org/10.1556/2006.2023.00048

Self-archived copy’s web addresshttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/182010531


Abstract

Objective and Method: Electronic gambling machines are a prominent cause of significant gambling harms globally. We use simulations of a simplified video poker game to show how changes in game volatility, defined primarily by the size of the main prize, affect patterns of wins and losses as well as winning streaks. Results: We found that in low- and medium volatility games the proportion of winning players quickly drops to zero after about 30 h of play, while in the high volatility game 5% of players are still winning after playing for 100 h. However, the proportion of winning streaks was significantly higher in the low- and medium volatility games compared with high volatility: the simulated players were on a winning streak about 26.3, 25.6 and 18% of the time in the low-, medium- and high volatility games, respectively. Conclusions: Fast-paced video poker with varying volatility levels but identical return-toplayer rates and win frequencies can yield highly different result patterns across individuals. These patterns may be counter-intuitive for players and difficult to realize without simulations and visualizations. We argue that the findings have relevance for responsible gambling communication and for building a better understanding of how cognitive biases influence gambling behaviour.


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Last updated on 2024-26-11 at 23:11