Important questions regarding mathematical giftedness are how and when it is possible to identify. To be identified as gifted, the student must have natural potential but also an appropriate mix of motivation, support, and challenges. This study is based on longitudinal data following students from 3rd grade in primary school to the end of upper secondary school between 2005 and 2015. We focus on top achievers (<2% of age cohort) of the national mathematics final exam at the end of upper secondary school. We investigate how accurately top achievers at the end of secondary school can be identified in 3rd, 6th, and 9th grades using national tests. We identify mathematical tasks that predict future top achievement and analyze how attitudes, gender, and parental background factors relate to high proficiency. Most top achievers had already been identified by 3rd grade and almost all of them by 9th grade. However, recognizing future top achievers was not very accurate, as they were indistinguishable from many students whose performance did not reach the same level over time. The best predictor for future top achievement was a student’s ability to solve non-routine and atypical tasks in early school years.

Keywords: giftedness; longitudinal research; mathematics; top achievers