A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä
Geopolitical threats, equity returns, and optimal hedging
Tekijät: Ali Syed Riaz Mahmood, AnikKaysul Islam, Hasan Mohammad Nurul, Kamal Md Rajib
Kustantaja: Elsevier (Commercial Publisher)
Julkaisuvuosi: 2023
Journal: International Review of Financial Analysis
eISSN: 1873-8079
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102835
Verkko-osoite: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521923003514
Rinnakkaistallenteen osoite: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/180330068
In this paper, we demonstrate that the U.S. equity market and a few specific sectors produce significantly positive returns during high geopolitical threats, even with the presence of standard controls, whereas other major markets around the world fail to exhibit such results. We use the geopolitical threats (GPT) index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022). We extend our study by examining the equity returns during extremely high geopolitical threats and find the results significantly positive for the U.S. equity market and two specific sectors- information technology and financials. The results of our investigation are likewise supported by the lead-lag regression and the Markov regime-switching model. Our results are robust in the presence of various alternative measures of market uncertainty indices, for instance, economic policy uncertainty, economic uncertainty, macroeconomic uncertainty etc., on a daily basis. However, the return on equity was not robust when conditional volatility and monthly frequency were considered. We also investigate and find the optimal hedging implications for investors during the presence of geopolitical threats. We find a considerable hedge alternative between the US market and gold and further explore how Geopolitical threats affect Gold and different US sectoral Exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Ladattava julkaisu This is an electronic reprint of the original article. |