A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä

Geopolitical threats, equity returns, and optimal hedging




TekijätAli Syed Riaz Mahmood, AnikKaysul Islam, Hasan Mohammad Nurul, Kamal Md Rajib

KustantajaElsevier (Commercial Publisher)

Julkaisuvuosi2023

JournalInternational Review of Financial Analysis

eISSN1873-8079

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102835

Verkko-osoitehttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521923003514

Rinnakkaistallenteen osoitehttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/180330068


Tiivistelmä

In this paper, we demonstrate that the U.S. equity market and a few specific sectors produce significantly positive returns during high geopolitical threats, even with the presence of standard controls, whereas other major markets around the world fail to exhibit such results. We use the geopolitical threats (GPT) index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022). We extend our study by examining the equity returns during extremely high geopolitical threats and find the results significantly positive for the U.S. equity market and two specific sectors- information technology and financials. The results of our investigation are likewise supported by the lead-lag regression and the Markov regime-switching model. Our results are robust in the presence of various alternative measures of market uncertainty indices, for instance, economic policy uncertainty, economic uncertainty, macroeconomic uncertainty etc., on a daily basis. However, the return on equity was not robust when conditional volatility and monthly frequency were considered. We also investigate and find the optimal hedging implications for investors during the presence of geopolitical threats. We find a considerable hedge alternative between the US market and gold and further explore how Geopolitical threats affect Gold and different US sectoral Exchange-traded funds (ETFs).


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Last updated on 2025-27-03 at 22:04