Background: Research focusing on predictors for discharge destination after rehabilitation of inpatients recovering from severe stroke is scarce. The predictive value of rehabilitation admission NIHSS score among other potential predictors available on admission to rehabilitation has not been studied.

Aim: The aim of this retrospective interventional study was to determine the predictive accuracy of 24 hours and rehabilitation admission NIHSS scores among other potential socio-demographic, clinical and functional predictors for discharge destination routinely collected on admission to rehabilitation.

Material and Methods: On a university hospital specialized inpatient rehabilitation ward 156 consecutive rehabilitants with 24 hours NIHSS score ⩾ 15 were recruited. On admission to rehabilitation, routinely collected variables potentially associated with discharge destination (community vs institution) were analyzed using logistic regression.

Results: 70 (44.9%) of rehabilitants were discharged to community, and 86 (55.1%) were discharged to institutional care. Those discharged home were younger and more often still working, had less often dysphagia/tube feeding or DNR decision in the acute phase, shorter time from stroke onset to rehabilitation admission, less severe impairment (NIHSS score, paresis, neglect) and disability (FIM score, ambulatory ability) on admission, and faster and more significant functional improvement during the in-stay than those institutionalized.

Conclusion: The most influential independent predictors for community discharge on admission to rehabilitation were lower admission NIHSS score, ambulatory ability and younger age, NIHSS being the most powerful. The odds of being discharged to community decreased with 16.1% for every 1 point increase in NIHSS. The 3-factor model explained 65.7% of community discharge and 81.9% of institutional discharge, the overall predictive accuracy being 74.7%. The corresponding figures for admission NIHSS alone were 58.6%, 70.9% and 65.4%.