A4 Refereed article in a conference publication
Global Megatrends and Global GDP in 2004–2021: An Empirical Big Data Look at John Naisbitt’s 12 Key Global Megatrend Variables and Global GDP PPP
Authors: Kaivo-oja Jari, Santonen Teemu
Editors: Lorna Uden, I-Hsien Ting
Conference name: International Conference on Knowledge Management in Organizations
Publishing place: Cham
Publication year: 2023
Journal: Communications in Computer and Information Science
Book title : Knowledge Management in Organisations: 17th International Conference, KMO 2023, Bangkok, Thailand, July 24–27, 2023, Proceedings
Series title: Communications in Computer and Information Science
Volume: 1825
First page : 169
Last page: 181
ISBN: 978-3-031-34044-4
eISBN: 978-3-031-34045-1
ISSN: 1865-0929
eISSN: 1865-0937
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34045-1_15
Web address : https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34045-1_15
This study presents a big data-driven estimate of John Naisbitt’s 12 megatrends and global economic growth. Empirical assessments and statistical monitoring analyses are presented for the years 2004–2021. The study assesses the intensity of megatrends and the direction of megatrend development based on big data from Google Trends. The study also presents a correlation analysis of the relationship between the 12 megatrend variables and global economic growth (GDP PPP). Half of the trends (N = 6) are on an upward trend, one-third of them (N = 4) are declining, and the remaining two trends follow an irregular path. The analysis of megatrends also reveals significant popularity differences between the trends. Importantly, megatrends are not stable entities, and unexpected events such as a pandemic or economic crisis appear to have a significant impact on them. Megatrends also have strong positive or negative interlinkages with each other.