O2 Muu julkaisu

Use of Unit Root Methods in Early Warning of Financial Crises




TekijätTimo Virtanen, Eero Tölö, Matti Virén, Katja Taipalus

KustantajaSuomen Pankki

KustannuspaikkaHelsinki

Julkaisuvuosi2016

Sarjan nimiBank of Finland Discussion Paper series

Numero sarjassa27

Vuosikerta44

Aloitussivu1

Lopetussivu31

Sivujen määrä31

eISBN978-952-323-132-0

ISSN1456-6184

Rinnakkaistallenteen osoitehttp://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/julkaisut/tutkimukset/keskustelualoitteet/Documents/BoF_DP_1627.pdf


Tiivistelmä

Unit root methods have long been used in detection of financial bubbles in asset prices. The basic idea is that fundamental changes in the autocorrelation structure of relevant time series imply the presence of a rational price bubble. We provide cross-country evidence for perfor-mance of unit-root-based early warning systems in ex-ante prediction of financial crises in 15 EU countries over the past three decades. We then combine the identified early warning signals from multiple time series into a composite indicator. We also show that a mix of data with different frequencies may be useful in providing timely warning signals. Our results suggest and an early warning tool based on unit root methods provides be a valuable accessory in fi-nancial stability supervision.


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Last updated on 2024-26-11 at 16:18