A2 Refereed review article in a scientific journal
The War in Ukraine as a Critical Juncture: China, Russia, and the Arctic Collaboration up to 2035
Authors: Kauppila Liisa, Kopra Sanna
Editors: Heininen Lassi, Exner-Pirot Heather, Barnes Justin
Edition: 2022
Publisher: Thematic Network on Geopolitics and Security (TN)
Publishing place: Akureyri
Publication year: 2022
Journal: Arctic Yearbook
Book title : Arctic Yearbook 2022: The Russian Arctic: Economics, Politics and Peoples
eISSN: 2298-2418
Web address : https://arcticyearbook.com/arctic-yearbook/2022/2022-scholarly-papers/427-the-war-in-ukraine-as-a-critical-juncture-china-russia-and-arctic-collaboration-up-to-2035
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/178233046
The outbreak of the war in Ukraine in February 2022 marks a major watershed in Arctic politics. Declining West-Russia relations have transformative implications for the region’s stability, practices of governance, and economic policies, including a potentially rapid green transition. Moreover, China’s ‘neutrality’ in the West-Russia axis adds on to the high level of uncertainty about the future of the Arctic. Unsurprisingly, this dynamic has sparked a newfound interest in mapping the region’s futures in an analytical and rigorous manner, and, consequently, spawned a growing pool of scenario analyses. Unlike most of these exercises, this article abandons the business-as-usual style of reasoning that guides the envisioning of predominantly alarming futures. Instead, it uses the futures research technique of backcasting to construct three scenarios on the continuation of the Arctic cooperation with the Sino-Russian relations on the focus. More specifically, the article produces a set of alternative futures that – despite the differences in their actual content and ethos – all picture an Arctic of 2035 where at least the eight Arctic states collaborate regularly, and in which climate change mitigation and adaptation constitutes a key driver of collaboration. With this research strategy, the article seeks to contribute to the efforts to alleviate regional tensions by immersing the readers into a future world of possibilities and hope – despite our deep condemnation of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Downloadable publication This is an electronic reprint of the original article. |