Background: The ceramide- and phospholipid-based cardiovascular risk score (CERT2) has been found to predict the risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, especially cardiovascular mortality. In the present study, our aim was to estimate the predictive ability of CERT2 for mortality of CVD, coronary artery disease (CAD), and stroke in the elderly and to compare these results with those of conventional lipids.

Methods: We conducted a prospective study with an 18-year follow-up period that included a total of 1260 participants ages >= 64 years. Ceramides and phosphatidylcholines were analyzed using a LC-MS. Total cholesterol and triglycerides were performed by enzymatic methods and HDL cholesterol was determined by a direct enzymatic method. Concentrations of LDL-cholesterol were calculated according to the Friedewald formula.

Results: A higher score of CERT2 was significantly associated with higher CVD, CAD, and stroke mortality during the 18-year follow-up both in unadjusted and adjusted Cox regression models. The unadjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of CERT2 (95% CI) per SD for CVD, CAD, and stroke were 1.72 (1.52-1.96), 1.76 (1.52-2.04), and 1.63 (1.27-2.10), respectively, and the corresponding adjusted HRs (95% CI) per SD for CERT2 were 1.48 (1.29-1.69), 1.50 (1.28-1.75), and 1.41 (1.09-1.83). For conventional lipids, HRs per SD were lower than for CERT2.

Conclusions: The risk score CERT2 associated strongly with CVD, CAD, and stroke mortality in the elderly, while the association between these events and conventional lipids was weak.