D4 Published development or research report or study

Educational field, economic uncertainty, and fertility decline in Finland in 2010–2019




AuthorsHellstrand Julia, Nisén Jessica, Myrskylä Mikko

PublisherMax Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Publishing placeRostock

Publication year2022

Series titleMPIDR Working Paper

Number in series22.

First page 1

Last page52

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2022-022

Web address https://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/publications_databases_6118/publications_1904/mpidr_working_papers/educational_field_economic_uncertainty_and_fertility_decline_in_finland_in_2010_2019_7359

Self-archived copy’s web addresshttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/176580537


Abstract

Fertility declined sharply and unexpectedly in Finland in the 2010s. Using detailed Finnish register data, we calculated total fertility rates (TFRs) and the proportion of women expected to have a first birth (TFRp1) in 2010–2019 for 153 fields of education and estimated how the characteristics of each field predicted its fertility decline. As educational field predicts factors related to economic uncertainty, heterogeneity in fertility decline across fields could shed light on the role of economic uncertainty behind the recent fertility decline.  In general, women with the highest initial fertility levels (health, welfare, and education) and women in agriculture experienced weaker fertility declines (around -20% or less), while women with the lowest initial fertility levels (ICT, arts and humanities) experienced stronger fertility declines (around -40% or more). The extent of the fertility decline increased with higher unemployment and lower income levels of the field, and with a lower share employed in the public sector. These uncertainty measures together explained one-fourth of the decline in TFR and two-fifths of the decline in first births. The results imply that groups characterized by stable job prospects escaped very strong fertility declines and that objective economic uncertainty fueled the fertility decline in Finland.


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Last updated on 2024-26-11 at 19:35