A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) as Populist Issue Entrepreneur: Explaining the Party and its Voters in the 2021 German Federal Election
Authors: Hansen Michael A., Olsen Jonathan
Publisher: Taylor and Francis Group
Publication year: 2022
Journal: German Politics
eISSN: 1743-8993
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09644008.2022.2087871
Web address : https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09644008.2022.2087871
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/175559243
This article analyses the vote for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the 2021 German Federal Election. Using the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES), we confirm some findings from previous studies, above all that attitudinal variables – including anti-immigrant ideology – are much stronger predictors of the AfD vote than socio-demographic variables. Moreover, we uncover three new findings in relation to vote choice for the AfD. First, anti-EU attitudes had a positive, statistically significant impact on AfD vote choice in 2021. Second, negative attitudes towards political elites increased the probability of voting for the AfD. Third, and perhaps most important, dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic was positively related to voting for the AfD. Given these results, we argue here that the AfD has become something of a populist ‘issue entrepreneur’ which, while exploiting existing niches in the electoral marketplace (the EU and migration), is finding new issues to tap and exploit.
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