A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä

Seizing the X-events. – The sixth K-wave and the shocks that may upend it.




AlaotsikkoThe sixth K-wave and the shocks that may upend it.

TekijätWilenius M, Casti J

KustantajaELSEVIER SCIENCE INC

KustannuspaikkaNew York

Julkaisuvuosi2015

JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change

Tietokannassa oleva lehden nimiTECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE

Lehden akronyymiTECHNOL FORECAST SOC

Vuosikerta94

Aloitussivu335

Lopetussivu349

Sivujen määrä15

ISSN0040-1625

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.12.003


Tiivistelmä

The article addresses the long-term patterns of societal change. In particular, it considers how certain high-impact, surprising events ("X-events") can change existing trends and thus give rise to a future that does not follow the "business-as-usual" default trend-following scenario. We look at the case of Kondratieff waves ("K-waves"), those socio-economic cycles by which dynamical societal patterns are often detected in futures studies. We postulate four hypothetical X-events and how they might fundamentally change the existing trend and thus take us to a very different kind of future. Finally, we recommend a set of principles through which organisations and countries can follow to deal with X-events should they occur. (C) 2014 Published by Elsevier Inc.




Last updated on 2024-26-11 at 12:35