A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal

Seizing the X-events. – The sixth K-wave and the shocks that may upend it.




SubtitleThe sixth K-wave and the shocks that may upend it.

AuthorsWilenius M, Casti J

PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE INC

Publishing placeNew York

Publication year2015

JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change

Journal name in sourceTECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE

Journal acronymTECHNOL FORECAST SOC

Volume94

First page 335

Last page349

Number of pages15

ISSN0040-1625

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.12.003


Abstract

The article addresses the long-term patterns of societal change. In particular, it considers how certain high-impact, surprising events ("X-events") can change existing trends and thus give rise to a future that does not follow the "business-as-usual" default trend-following scenario. We look at the case of Kondratieff waves ("K-waves"), those socio-economic cycles by which dynamical societal patterns are often detected in futures studies. We postulate four hypothetical X-events and how they might fundamentally change the existing trend and thus take us to a very different kind of future. Finally, we recommend a set of principles through which organisations and countries can follow to deal with X-events should they occur. (C) 2014 Published by Elsevier Inc.




Last updated on 2024-26-11 at 12:35