Mobile communication has grown out of its
previous scope and scale. Mobile operators play a significant role in this
phenomenon. Since the mobile operator business is highly regulated, we have
analyzed the effects of regulation on the industry. We also have considered the
possible effects in the coming years up to 2015. The aim of this paper is to
discuss the possibilities of a futures-oriented method - i.e., the Delphi
method, to estimate the effect of regulation on the mobile operator business.  The challenge is that the method was originally
created to assess experts' opinions about the course of development of a
certain technology or phenomenon in the future and then, by using a scenario
technique, to draw conclusions about its possible futures. Now the Delphi
method is also being used to estimate past development, i.e. experts' opinions
of the causes and effects of laws and other regulations in the past few
decades. The paper forms a part of a larger study, the aim of which is to
analyze the effects of changes in the regulatory framework for the mobile
operator industry in Finland. According to this research the ultimate goals of
the regulator, set as early as in the middle of the 1980s, have been actualized:
In Finland there are several competing nationwide mobile operators and the use
of mobile phones is cheap compared to many other countries.