Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tai data-artikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä (A1)

The “Seili‑index” for the Prediction of Chlorophyll‑α Levels in the Archipelago Sea of the northern Baltic Sea, southwest Finland

Julkaisun tekijätHänninen Jari, Mäkinen Katja, Nordhausen Klaus, Laaksonlaita Jussi, Loisa Olli, Virta Joni



JournalEnvironmental Modeling and Assessment

Lehden akronyymiENMO




Rinnakkaistallenteen osoite


To build a forecasting tool for the state of eutrophication in the Archipelago Sea, we fitted a Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) to marine environmental monitoring data, which were collected over the years 2011–2019 by an automated profiling buoy at the Seili ODAS-station. The resulting “Seili-index” can be used to predict the chlorophyll-α (chl-a) concentration in the seawater a number of days ahead by using the temperature forecast as a covariate. An array of test predictions with two separate models on the 2019 data set showed that the index is adept at predicting the amount of chl-a especially in the upper water layer. The visualization with 10 days of chl-a level predictions is presented online at https:// index/. We also applied GAMMs to predict abrupt blooms of cyanobacteria on the basis of temperature and wind conditions and found the model to be feasible for short-term predictions. The use of automated monitoring data and the presented GAMM model in assessing the effects of natural resource management and pollution risks is discussed.

Ladattava julkaisu

This is an electronic reprint of the original article.
This reprint may differ from the original in pagination and typographic detail. Please cite the original version.

Last updated on 2022-29-03 at 11:03